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Forecast

June 5, 2019/report

June 5, 2019

Summary: Upper level  high pressure is essentially right above us this morning.  Temperatures on the valley floor are anywhere from 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  The freezing level has risen to 14,300 feet while the marine layer is 1,200 feet.  Winds at Fairfield in the Delta are southwest at just 8 MPH, so the sea breeze is definitely being held at bay (no pun intended).  Temperatures at most locations will eclipse the 100 degree mark this afternoon.  A low center currently in the Gulf of Alaska will drop into southern British Columbia Thursday, eventually forming a trough down into northern and central California Thursday night through Friday night.  The marine layer will rapidly deepen and will surge inland beginning Thursday, lowering temperatures a few degrees with considerably more cooling Friday and Saturday as the valley fills with marine air and cooler air moves in aloft.

 

Summer will make its triumphant comeback later next week as a new dome of high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins to build inland.  Some models show us pushing the century mark as early as Monday.  This set of models has backed off somewhat on the potential for very hot temperatures later next week.  Upper 90s and lower 100s appear to be a better forecast at this time.  Models also indicate a dry west to northwest flow will prevail much of next week to extend the usual dry summertime regime.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday.  Mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 101/68/94/59/83 Reedley 101/68/95/60/84 Dinuba 100/67/95/58/83
Porterville 101/69/96/60/85 Lindsay 100/67/96/58/84 Delano 102/71/96/61/85
Bakersfield 103/75/96/64/85 Taft 101/75/96/68/86 Arvin 103/71/97/65/86
Lamont 102/72/96/67/86 Pixley 101/68/96/59/84 Tulare 100/67/96/59/84
Woodlake 101/67/96/60/83 Hanford 102/69/97/60/83 Orosi 101/67/95/58/83

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

55/83

Sunday

Mostly clear

59/91

Monday

Mostly clear

63/98

Tuesday

Mostly clear

64/100

Wednesday

Mostly clear

65/101

 

Two Week Outlook: June 10 through June 16:  This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.  As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.

 

June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California.  In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical.  The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual.  As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH today and mostly out of the northwest this afternoon and evening.  Late tonight through Friday, there will be periods of winds mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side, especially along the I-5 corridor.  Later Friday night and Saturday, winds will generally be at or less than 15 MPH.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/60% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/55%

Actual Humidity June 4, 2019: Delano, 92%/37% Porterville, 81%/26%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.79, Parlier 1.76, Blackwell 1.89, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.96, Orange Cove 1.81, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 73, Blackwell 78, Lindcove, 72, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 77, Delano 78

Record Temperatures: 107/48. Average Temperatures: 89/58

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 248 +29

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 78.5 +6.5

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.70.  Month to Date: .02 -.05

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.51.  Month to Date: .23 +.21

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:40 am  Sunset: 8:15 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:32

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  96 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  65 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  98 /  70 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  94 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  98 /  66 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  97 /  74 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  95 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.71    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   105    8.17    64    12.74    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.13    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    98    7.22    62    11.62    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   106    6.73    60    11.15    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    97    4.70    48     9.78    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   124    3.95    63     6.29     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.45   187    1.49    33     4.53     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.57    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.44    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.73    13.95

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Next report:  Thursday, June 6