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Forecast

June 14, 2019/report

June 14, 2019

Summary: The marine layer at Monterey this morning is 2,400 feet deep.  That modified sea breeze is now moving through Pacheco Pass where winds are gusting to 35 MPH. Obviously, winds are also moving through the Delta where winds are sustained at 18 MPH, gusting to 29.  Temperatures on the valley floor this morning are anywhere from 4 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and generally range in the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

 

Today will be rather pleasant by recent standards.  Temperatures will fall back into the low to mid 90s.  In the broad picture, two weak ripples of low pressure will move through.  This could cause a few isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.  A weak ridge will build in Saturday night and Sunday, however temperatures will vary only marginally.

 

Once we progress into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, a high center will develop off the northern California coast, building eastward into northern and central California.  The clockwise flow around this high will turn the winds off shore, shutting down the marine  layer and, with an off shore flow aloft, some downslope heating will occur along the sierra Nevada, driving temperatures back into triple digits as early as Tuesday.  One hundred plus degree readings can be expected through Friday then the high will begin to weaken and flatten out towards next weekend, lowering temperatures back into double digits.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 92/60/93/62/93 Reedley 94/61/95/62/93 Dinuba 92/60/94/62/92
Porterville 94/62/95/63/94 Lindsay 93/60/95/62/93 Delano 95/64/95/65/94
Bakersfield 95/67/95/67/94 Taft 96/68/97/69/95 Arvin 96/65/96/65/95
Lamont 95/65/96/65/95 Pixley 95/62/96/63/94 Tulare 93/61/95/62/93
Woodlake 94/61/95/62/93 Hanford 93/61/95/62/94 Orosi 93/61/94/62/93

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

64/96

Tuesday

Mostly clear

66/100

Wednesday

Mostly clear

68/102

Thursday

Mostly clear

69/101

Friday

Mostly clear

66/100

 

Two Week Outlook: June 21 through June 27:  This model has flip flopped a bit and indicates a trough of low pressure will be the more dominant feature during this time frame.  If this happens, a welcome cooling trend will occur with temperatures near to possibly marginally below average with the usual dry conditions continuing.

 

 

June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California.  In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical.  The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual.  As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

Winds:  Winds will be out of the west to northwest later this afternoon at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH and possibly 30 MPH along the west side.  Winds Saturday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH.  Winds Sunday through Monday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/60%

Actual Humidity June 13, 2019: Delano, 70%/28% Porterville, 79%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.91, Blackwell 2.16, Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.05, Porterville 1.98, Delano 1.95. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 74, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 81, Delano 80

Record Temperatures: 108/42. Average Temperatures: 92/60

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 382 +87

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 79.3 +6.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.61.  Month to Date: .00 -.14

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.48.  Month to Date: .23 +.18

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:39 am  Sunset: 8:19 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  98 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  65 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  99 /  76 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1655 /  96 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  97 /  67 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  99 /  75 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  93 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.74    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.79    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    98    7.22    62    11.70    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    60    11.24    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    48     9.86    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    63     6.32     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.45   184    1.49    32     4.59     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.60    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.44    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.74    13.95

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Next report:  Saturday, June 15