June 15, 2019
Summary: The marine layer at Monterey still stands at 2,100 feet. However, there is not enough of an on shore flow for a legitimate push of modified sea breeze down the valley. Some of the sea breeze could make it as far south as Merced County via the Delta, but the central and south valley will remain free from it. Currently, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure is building in from the west while a trough of low pressure is shifting eastward through the Great Basin. Another weak ripple of low pressure will move through Sunday, resulting in some high clouds and a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Upper level high pressure off the northern California coast will build inland through Oregon Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak low will develop off the southern California coast. This will create a northeast flow aloft over central California. Couple that with the fact the upper low will be to our southwest and we should see scattered thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. With that developing northeast flow, it’s possible isolated thunderstorms could drift down over the lower foothills and even over the eastern portion of the San Joaquin Valley Monday with a higher risk Tuesday afternoon. The chance of measurable rain at any given location will be roughly 10% or so.
By the latter half of next week, high pressure will build in from the west, warming temperatures into the upper 90s and lower 100s. some models are showing a fairly significant trough of low pressure developing over the Pacific Northwest with a trough into northern and central California a week from tomorrow. Should this occur, significant cooling would happen with temperatures perhaps even dropping below average.
The new two week model is certainly picking up on this, indicating the possibility of below average temperatures from the 22 through the 28.
Forecast: Clear skies through tonight. Mostly clear Sunday with some high clouds mixed in. mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday, however there will be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms near the Sierra Nevada foothills Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 97/61/93/60/97 | Reedley 98/61/95/64/99 | Dinuba 96/60/94/62/97 | |
| Porterville 98/61/96/64/99 | Lindsay 98/60/96/63/99 | Delano 99/63/96/65/99 | |
| Bakersfield 97/68/95/69/100 | Taft 98/74/96/75/100 | Arvin 100/65/97/67/101 | |
| Lamont 99/65/97/67/100 | Pixley 98/62/96/65/98 | Tulare 96/61/96/63/98 | |
| Woodlake 96/61/94/64/97 | Hanford 97/61/97/65/98 | Orosi 96/61/94/64/98 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Slight chance of t-storms 67/99 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 67/101 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 67/100 |
Friday
Mostly clear 64/98 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/91 |
Two Week Outlook: June 22 through June 28: This model has flip flopped a bit and indicates a trough of low pressure will be the more dominant feature during this time frame. If this happens, a welcome cooling trend will occur with temperatures near to possibly marginally below average with the usual dry conditions continuing.
June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California. In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical. The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual. As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Tuesday with local gusts to 25 MPH possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, and mainly out of the northwest. Winds during the late night and early morning hours will decrease to around 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A developing northeast flow brought on by a weak low projected to form off the southern California coast will be conducive for scattered thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Monday through Wednesday afternoons. With that northeast flow aloft, it’s possible a few cells could drift over the eastern portion of the San Joaquin Valley Monday and Tuesday afternoons and possibly Wednesday. The chance of measurable rain at any given location for now is no more than 10%. After Wednesday, expect dry weather to return.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/60%
Actual Humidity June 14, 2019: Delano, 78%/26% Porterville, 85%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.03, Parlier 1.92, Blackwell 2.19, Arvin 2.22, Orange Cove 2.07, Porterville 2.00, Delano 1.96. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 75, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 74, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 82, Delano 81
Record Temperatures: 109/47. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 396 +92
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for June so far: 79.2 +6.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.60. Month to Date: .00 -.15
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.48. Month to Date: .23 +.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:39 am Sunset: 8:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 96 / 70 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 94 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 85 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 95 / 74 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.74 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.79 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 98 7.22 62 11.70 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 60 11.24 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 48 9.86 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 63 6.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.45 184 1.49 32 4.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 110 7.15 57 12.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.44 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.74 13.95
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Next report: Monday, June 17