June 18, 2019
Summary: Upper level high pressure is centered this morning several hundred miles off the northern California coast with a ridge extending inland through northern and central California. The freezing level over Oakland this morning was 15,300 feet, which is a couple thousand feet higher than the freezing level over Vandenberg or even San Diego.
The marine layer along the coast is about 1,500 feet deep with no sea breeze moving through the Delta. All the key ingredients are there for a typically hot day in the San Joaquin Valley with temperatures at most locations moving into the lower 100s. as has been the case this early summer season, triple digits won’t last long as a major shift in the pattern will begin Thursday. A robust low pressure center, especially considering the time of year, will drop out of western Canada and eventually encompass the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies by Friday. One model shows a secondary low developing over western Nevada, extending into central California by Saturday. If this happens, showers would become likely over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, but no chance of precip for the central valley.
The main impact of all this will be elevated wind conditions and much cooler weather, especially Friday and Saturday. A strong onshore flow will push plenty of modified marine air through the gaps and passes along the Coast Range and through the Delta. This will lower temperatures into the 80s, a refreshing change. By Sunday, the trough will be shifting towards the Rocky Mountain region, allowing fairly weak upper level high pressure to build into California from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures early next week will rise to fairly seasonal levels.
By the middle of next week, a new low shows up on models, dropping into the Pacific Northwest and northern California for another downturn in temperatures as yet another strong onshore flow, accompanied by modified marine air, pushes down the valley. In fact, models show predominantly low pressure over the western states through next weekend and actually through the end of the month, meaning mild weather will prevail with no chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Continued to be mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 101/65/93/60/87 | Reedley 102/67/94/61/88 | Dinuba 100/64/93/60/87 | |
| Porterville 102/66/95/62/88 | Lindsay 102/65/94/61/88 | Delano 102/68/94/64/89` | |
| Bakersfield 103/73/97/64/87 | Taft 102/75/96/68/86 | Arvin 103/68/96/63/88 | |
| Lamont 103/68/96/65/87 | Pixley 102/67/95/62/88 | Tulare 101/64/94/61/87 | |
| Woodlake 102/66/94/62/88 | Hanford 103/66/95/61/87 | Orosi 101/66/94/61/88 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 55/86 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/92 |
Monday
Mostly clear 63/95 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/95 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 59/92 |
Two Week Outlook: June 26 through July 2: This model has flip flopped a bit and indicates a trough of low pressure will be the more dominant feature during this time frame. If this happens, a welcome cooling trend will occur with temperatures near to possibly marginally below average with the usual dry conditions continuing.
June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California. In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical. The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual. As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
Winds: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. During the later night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday through Saturday will occasionally be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts possibly exceeding 30 MPH, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor near the base of the gaps and passes along the Coast Range. Winds will settle down Saturday night with light winds Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/65%
Actual Humidity June 18, 2019: Delano, 93%/39% Porterville, 79%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.03, Parlier 1.97, Blackwell 2.33, Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.08, Porterville 2.07, Delano 2.00. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 77, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 85, Delano 83
Record Temperatures: 108/51. Average Temperatures: 93/61
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 461 +118
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for June so far: 79.6 +6.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.57. Month to Date: .00 -.18
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.47. Month to Date: .23 +.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:40 am Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 100 / 74 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 100 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 99 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.75 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.81 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 98 7.22 62 11.71 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 60 11.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 48 9.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.33 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 183 1.49 32 4.63 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.15 57 12.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.44 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.75 13.95
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Next report: Thursday, June 20