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Forecast

July 13, 2019/report

 July 13, 2019

Summary: Most ag locations this morning are starting out the day in the pleasant low to mid 60s.  That will change in a hurry as we find ourselves on the northwestern flank of  upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.  Temperatures will soar well past the century mark this afternoon with many locations topping out in the 104 to 108 degree range.  The winds aloft are very weak and are out of the south.  The monsoon moisture is working mainly northward into Arizona and Utah and to a lesser extent Nevada.  California, with the exception of the extreme southeast, is cloud free.

 

Readings Sunday will back off perhaps on the average of 2 degrees at most locations.  A weak trough of low pressure will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Sunday through Tuesday, shaving off the top portion of the high and increasing the onshore flow.  This will allow modified marine air to  move inland.  By Monday, most locations will be in the upper 90s, perhaps lower 100s in Kern County then will level off in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday through Friday, which is marginally below average. Incidentally, the average high for Fresno is now 99, which is the highest it gets on average and that average temperature will remain there for the next couple of weeks before starting to trend downwards towards late July.

 

Some models are showing the development of a cut off low off the central coast.  No weather will be associated with it.  It will, however, maintain at least marginally below average temperatures next Tuesday through Friday.  It’s possible an even stronger trough will  move into the western states after that, lowering temperatures below average.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through Monday.  Mostly clear and a bit cooler Tuesday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 104/67/103/64/98` Reedley 105/65/103/63/99 Dinuba 104/64/103/63/98
Porterville 106/66/104/65/100 Lindsay 105/66/104/65/100 Delano 107/70/105/68/101
Bakersfield 107/76/105/73/101 Taft 106/80/103/78/100 Arvin 108/73/106/72/101
Lamont 107/72/105/71/101 Pixley 106/66/104/65/100 Tulare 104/64/103/63/99
Woodlake 105/65/104/63/99 Hanford 106/67/104/65/100 Orosi 104/66/103/65/99

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

61/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

60/95

Thursday

Mostly clear

62/97

Friday

Mostly clear

61/96

Saturday

Mostly clear

60/93

 

Two Week Outlook: July 19 through July 25:  This model shows the main heat belt from the Rocky Mountains eastward while a weak trough is along the west coast.  Since this trough is unimpressive, temperatures will remain near average with no chance of precipitation.

 

July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average.  With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.

 

July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period.  Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 MPH and 3 to 8 MPH during the later night and morning hours.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/60% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/45%

Actual Humidity range July 12, 2019: Delano, 79%/29% Porterville, 89%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.93, Parlier 1.92, Blackwell 2.16, Arvin 2.06, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.93, Delano 1.89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 78, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 75, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 87, Delano 82

Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 98/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 780 +138

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for July so far: 78.5 -0.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:51 am  Sunset: 8:18 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:28

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  96 /  70 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  96 /  67 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  94 /  66 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  64 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1623 /  96 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   179    2.21    47     4.74     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.77    13.95

Next report:  Monday, July 15