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Forecast

July 12, 2019/report

 July 12, 2019

Summary: Now that upper level high pressure has set up shop over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest, the winds aloft have become briefly southerly.  Mid and high level clouds from the monsoon have worked their way as far north as southern Yuma County.  It’s possible a limited amount of this moisture will sneak up the southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over the back country and possibly a few high clouds over the valley floor.  Little else can be expected.  The main impact of this high will be hot weather as building pressures aloft have suppressed the marine layer which is now roughly 1,000 feet deep along the coast.  I noted winds at Pacheco Pass this morning were light and variable at last report, indicating no marine air is moving in.

 

Saturday and possibly Sunday will be the hottest in this series as temperatures soar into the 104 to 108 degree range, which is not that unusual this time of year.  This will be yet another short lived little heat wave as by Monday a weak trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and extend southward into northern California.  This will flatten out the high and also deepen the marine layer.  With the modified sea breeze moving through the Delta and into the valley Tuesday and Wednesday, readings will fall into the mid to upper 90s.  temperatures may actually end up marginally below average by mid week.  In fact, one model actually shows a weak upper low off the central coast which would maintain moderate temperatures through at least next Friday.

 

The medium range outlook for the 20 through the 25 is indicating the possibility of a strong high over the western states which, in theory, would return the monsoon to California and also result in above average temperatures.  Other models are not quite so bullish, so we’ll see what trends develop.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through Monday.  Mostly clear and a bit cooler Tuesday through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 100/64/105/66/104 Reedley 101/63/105/66/104 Dinuba 100/63/104/65/104
Porterville 101/65/106/67/105 Lindsay 100/63/106/66/105 Delano 101/68/106/70/106
Bakersfield 102/74/107/75/106 Taft 101/78/105/78/104 Arvin 103/70/107/72/106
Lamont 102/69/107/71/106 Pixley 101/64/106/68/104 Tulare 100/63/105/66/104
Woodlake 100/63/104/65/104 Hanford 101/65/105/67/105 Orosi 100/63/105/66/104

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

63/100

Tuesday

Mostly clear

62/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

60/95

Thursday

Mostly clear

59/96

Friday

Mostly clear

62/97

 

Two Week Outlook: July 19 through July 25:  This model shows the main heat belt from the Rocky Mountains eastward while a weak trough is along the west coast.  Since this trough is unimpressive, temperatures will remain near average with no chance of precipitation.

 

July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average.  With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.

 

July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period.  Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 MPH and 3 to 8 MPH during the later night and morning hours.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity range July 11, 2019: Delano, 78%/33% Porterville, 85%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.93, Parlier 1.92, Blackwell 2.18, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 1.94, Delano 1.89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 78, Blackwell 82, Lindcove, 75, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 87, Delano 82

Record Temperatures: 109/53. Average Temperatures: 98/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 762 +134

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for July so far: 78.1 -0.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:50 am  Sunset: 8:19 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:30

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  96 /  70 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  96 /  67 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  94 /  66 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  64 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1623 /  96 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   179    2.21    47     4.74     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.77    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, July 13