July 17, 2019
Summary: Even though the marine layer is almost 3,000 feet deep this morning, the amount of marine air moving into the valley is minimal due to a very weak onshore flow. It’s possible temperatures could come down a degree or two, mainly from Fresno County north, but most locations will see temperatures similar to yesterday’s. A weak trough of low pressure continues just off the west coast while upper level high pressure has moved southwestward into northwest Mexico. The winds aloft are quite weak as they typically are this time of year, but are generally out of the west.
The west coast trough will be reinforced somewhat Friday and Saturday, increasing the onshore flow and allowing a shallow intrusion of modified marine air into the valley. This will nudge temperatures down a few degrees, generally leveling off into the mid 90s.
Models for the pattern beginning Sunday are becoming more interesting. A massive upper high is expected to build over the west, possibly centering near the Utah/Colorado border. California would be on the far western border of this high so it doesn’t appear temperatures will soar to excessive values, but lower 100s are certainly possible beginning Monday.
Models continue to trend towards monsoon moisture working northward on a southerly flow aloft. This means we could begin to see high level clouds over the valley possibly as early as Monday with an increasing chance of scattered to isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and even a slight chance over the Kern County mountains.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 95/61/97/62/94 | Reedley 96/61/96/62/95 | Dinuba 95/60/97/61/94 |
| Porterville 97/61/97/62/95 | Lindsay 97/60/97/61/96 | Delano 97/67/97/65/96 |
| Bakersfield 97/70/97/68/96 | Taft 98/75/98/73/95 | Arvin 99/68/98/66/96 |
| Lamont 99/67/98/66/96 | Pixley 96/62/97/63/95 | Tulare 96/61/96/62/94 |
| Woodlake 96/60/97/62/95 | Hanford 95/63/97/61/94 | Orosi 96/60/97/61/94 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 59/95 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 66/101 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 68/102 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 69/102 |
Two Week Outlook: July 22 through July 28: This model shows the main heat belt from the Rocky Mountains eastward while a weak trough is along the west coast. Since this trough is unimpressive, temperatures will remain near average with no chance of precipitation.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings through Saturday with local gusts to around 25 MPH. during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range July 16, 2019: Delano, 72%/30% Porterville, 88%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.08, Parlier 2.05, Blackwell 2.07, Arvin 2.13, Orange Cove 2.29, Porterville 2.00, Delano 1.98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 89, Delano 83
Record Temperatures: 114/56. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 848 +149
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 79.3 +0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:54 am Sunset: 8:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 61 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1636 / 95 / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 96 / 75 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 179 2.21 47 4.74 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.77 13.95
Next report: Thursday, July 18