July 18, 2019
Summary: Typically this time of year, changes in our weather are very subtle, generally just minor changes in temperature and that certainly will be the case for the remainder of the week. Upper level high pressure over Baja has expanded a little farther north and this will allow for a few degrees of warming today, enough so that the hottest locations, especially in Kern County, will warm to around the century mark. A reinforcing trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday for another subtle change in our weather. This will lower temperatures a few degrees, generally back into the mid 90s.
Currently, the flow aloft is out of the west which is a very dry flow, so other than a few high, thin clouds, skies will remain clear through the weekend. Beginning Sunday night, upper level high pressure will regain its position over the Desert Southwest, slowly expanding to the north and west. This high will eventually build a ridge into the Canadian Rockies, giving you an idea of the scope of this system. California will be on the western border of this high. The clockwise flow around the high will turn the winds from south to north, transporting monsoon moisture to the north and increasing the chance of isolated, mainly evening thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California. By Tuesday, these storms will be possible up the southern Sierra Nevada. Don’t be surprised to see occasional periods of cloud cover over the valley floor, possibly as early as Monday, but more so Tuesday through Friday of next week.
Generally, dew points begin to creep up under this pattern, meaning increased humidity, with temperatures rising into at least the lower 100s beginning Monday. The comfort level will certainly not be the best. Most models show the high breaking down by next weekend for a cooling trend and an end to the monsoon moisture.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/61/93/59/95 | Reedley 99/61/94/59/95 | Dinuba 98/60/93/58/94 |
| Porterville 99/61/95/61/95 | Lindsay 98/59/94/58/95 | Delano 100/64/96/62/95 |
| Bakersfield 100/70/96/67/96 | Taft 100/73/95/71/96 | Arvin 101/65/96/64/96 |
| Lamont 100/66/95/64/96 | Pixley 99/65/95/63/96 | Tulare 97/61/94/61/95 |
| Woodlake 98/61/94/59/95 | Hanford 99/62/95/65/95 | Orosi 98/60/94/59/95 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 63/99 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 66/101 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 67/102 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 67/101 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 66/100 |
Two Week Outlook: July 24 through July 30: This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states. This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures. The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings through Sunday with local gusts to around 25 MPH. during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/55%
Actual Humidity range July 17, 2019: Delano, 71%/30% Porterville, 79%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.06, Parlier 2.05, Blackwell 2.16, Arvin 2.14, Orange Cove 2.28, Porterville 2.01, Delano 1.99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 89, Delano 84
Record Temperatures: 111/54. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 863 +149
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 79.4 +0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:54 am Sunset: 8:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 99 / 69 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 97 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 177 2.95 62 4.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.78 13.95
Next report: Friday, July 19