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Forecast

July 19, 2019/report

 July 19, 2019

Summary: The main high center is located over central Baja and is far enough to the south to allow a weak trough to move into the Pacific Northwest and weaken the upper high above California.  As is typical this time of year, the result will be subtle with marginal cooling today and Saturday as readings fall back into the mid 90s.  there will be a fundamental change in the pattern beginning Sunday as a new high center begins to develop over the Four Corners region.  This is pretty normal for mid summer.

 

By Monday night and Tuesday, the high will  have built a ridge northward into the Canadian Rockies and will also have expanded westward over California.  This will be the first real visit of the monsoon this summer as the winds become southerly or even southeasterly, moving monsoonal moisture into all of California.

 

By the middle of next week, conditions will be a bit muggy along with triple digit temperatures.  Under this pattern, scattered to isolated thunderstorms will break out over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the Sierra Nevada, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.  I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a few sprinkles over the valley floor sometime next week as occasionally debris clouds can be dense enough for trace amounts of rain to occur.

 

High temperatures next week will depend on the amount of cloud cover.  Readings will easily move into triple digits on days when mostly clear skies prevail.  Overnight lows will be quite warm with higher dewpoints and occasional cloud cover.

 

By next weekend, models are inconsistent.  Some actually place a high center over southern California which, in theory, would maintain triple digit temperatures into the following week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night.  partly cloudy Monday through Friday and hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 93/59/94/62/99 Reedley 94/59/94/62/98 Dinuba 93/58/94/60/97
Porterville 95/60/95/63/99 Lindsay 95/58/95/61/99 Delano 95/63/95/66/100
Bakersfield 96/68/97/72/100 Taft 95/72/95/75/100 Arvin 96/62/96/67/101
Lamont 96/64/96/68/101 Pixley 95/61/94/64/99 Tulare 94/59/94/63/98
Woodlake 95/58/94/61/98 Hanford 95/60/96/65/99 Orosi 94/58/94/62/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Partly cloudy

67/102

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

70/103

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

71/103

Thursday

Partly cloudy

72/104

Friday

Partly cloudy

72/103

 

Two Week Outlook: July 26 through August 2:  This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states.  This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures.  The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.

 

July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average.  With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.

 

July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period.  Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings through Monday with local gusts to around 25 MPH.  during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.

 

Rain: The first significant visit of our old friend the monsoon begins early next week.  A south to southeast flow will transport moisture into California for scattered thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.  It’s possible a few sprinkles could occur over the valley floor anytime next week with the highest risk being Tuesday through Thursday.  As of this  juncture, nothing measurable is expected, but on rare occasions, a few hundredths occur.  That’s why the average rainfall for July in Fresno, for example, is just two hundredths.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/65%

Actual Humidity range July 18, 2019: Delano, 64%/24% Porterville, 63%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.04, Parlier 2.06, Blackwell 2.26, Arvin 2.16, Orange Cove 2.28, Porterville 2.03, Delano 2.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 90, Delano 84

Record Temperatures: 112/54. Average Temperatures: 99/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 879 +150

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for July so far: 79.4 +0.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:55 am  Sunset: 8:15 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:21

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  98 /  62 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  70 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  72 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  63 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1621 /  97 /  65 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  99 /  63 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  98 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  65 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   177    2.95    62     4.78     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.78    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, July 20