July 20, 2019
Summary: The marine layer is roughly 2,800 feet deep this morning. Satellite imagery indicates the coastal low clouds have penetrated well inland and cover most of the coastal and intermediate valleys that separate the coastal environment from the valley. Some of this modified sea breeze is moving over the gaps and passes through the Coast Range and the Delta which will result in one more day of marginally below average temperatures.
The weak trough which has been along the west coast for several days now will begin to migrate northward Sunday as a new high center takes shape over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest. By Monday, this high will have built a ridge into the Canadian Rockies and it will have expanded to the west far enough to encompass California.
The first phase of this change will be a return to hot weather as triple digits will begin as early as tomorrow afternoon in the hotter locations with widespread triple digits Monday and each day next week. The clockwise flow around this high will turn the winds aloft out of the south to possibly even southeast which will continue to favor monsoon moisture working its way north from northern Mexico and into California.
Models show a significant push of deep tropical moisture Tuesday night through Thursday for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountain and desert regions and up the Sierra Nevada. Cloud cover and higher dew points will be noted as the week wears on. Occasionally under this pattern, sprinkles occur mainly from debris clouds from dissipated thunderstorms over southern California. On rare occasions measurable rain has occurred, however that is not in the forecast.
Interestingly enough, some models show the center of the high’s circulation over southern California this weekend which could result in even hotter temperatures, but it would also suppress thunderstorm activity over the mountain areas.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday and becoming hot. A mix of clouds with periods of mostly clear skies will prevail Monday night through Saturday, continued hot and rather muggy.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/60/99/64/101 | Reedley 94/60/99/65/102 | Dinuba 93/59/98/63/100 |
| Porterville 94/61/100/64/102 | Lindsay 94/60/99/64/101 | Delano 95/64/100/68/103 |
| Bakersfield 95/69/100/75/103 | Taft 94/70/100/75/103 | Arvin 95/66/101/69/104 |
| Lamont 95/65/100/69/102 | Pixley 94/61/99/66/102 | Tulare 93/59/98/64/101 |
| Woodlake 94/58/98/64/101 | Hanford 94/61/99/65/102 | Orosi 94/61/99/65/101 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy Hot 69/105 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy Hot 72/103 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy Hot 72/104 |
Friday
Partly cloudy Hot 71/106 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy Hot 72/105 |
Two Week Outlook: July 27 through August 2: This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states. This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures. The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range afternoons and evenings and 3 to 8 MPH during the night and morning hours.
Rain: A classic summertime pattern will be in place next week with strong high pressure over the interior west result in hot weather but also rotating monsoonal moisture in from the southeast. This favors afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and even isolated cells over the Kern County mountains and deserts. It’s possible cloud cover could be heavy enough from dissipating thunderstorms for a few sprinkles over the valley floor, especially Tuesday through Thursday. For now, though, nothing measurable is expected.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range July 19, 2019: Delano, 72%/25% Porterville, 60%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.02, Parlier 2.04, Blackwell 2.35, Arvin 2.18, Orange Cove 2.26, Porterville 2.03, Delano 2.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 90, Delano 84
Record Temperatures: 111/54. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 895 +151
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 79.5 +0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:56 am Sunset: 8:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:19
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 69 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 95 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 177 2.95 62 4.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.78 13.95
Next report: Monday, July 22