July 24, 2019
Summary: The first round of monsoonal moisture yesterday resulted in measurable rain in isolated locations in Kern County. Most locations, however, received either trace amounts or nothing, which is typical with these events. Considerably less cloud cover will be observed today. However, there is another batch of monsoonal moisture currently in northern Baja. It will begin to stream northward, causing cloud cover to increase over central California tonight and Thursday.
Strong upper level high pressure continues to be centered near the Four Corners region, but will drift southwestward into Arizona Thursday and into northern Baja Friday. The high’s position will begin to block the monsoon from moving into California from Thursday night through Monday. Some models actually place the center of the high over south central California on Sunday, which potentially would drive temperatures to the hottest readings of the year, so far. Most locations over the weekend will run between 106 and 111 with Sunday being the hottest in the series.
Our migrating high will be on the move again, shifting back to the Four Corners region by Tuesday of next week. The clockwise flow around the high will again be favorable for moving monsoonal moisture into California by the middle of next week. There will be daily rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through the weekend, but generally clear skies and hot conditions will prevail in the valley.
For now, I really don’t see an end to the triple digit conditions for the next ten days. Even the two week outlook calls for persistent high pressure over the western United States, resulting in above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hot today with occasional high clouds. Variable cloudiness tonight and Thursday with a slight chance of sprinkles and continued hot. Becoming mostly clear Thursday night. mostly clear and hot Friday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/71/104/72/104 | Reedley 103/74/103/72/104 | Dinuba 102/72/103/74/104 |
| Porterville 103/73/104/75/105 | Lindsay 103/72/104/73/104 | Delano 104/74/105/75/105 |
| Bakersfield 104/80/103/81/105 | Taft 104/82/105/82/105 | Arvin 105/75/104/78/106 |
| Lamont 105/76/104/77/106 | Pixley 103/72/104/74/104 | Tulare 102/71/103/72/103 |
| Woodlake 102/72/103/72/103 | Hanford 103/74/104/74/104 | Orosi 102/71/103/72/103 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 73/106 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 74/107 |
Monday
Mostly clear 74/109 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 72/106 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 72/103 |
Two Week Outlook: July 29 through August 4: This model is showing a fairly amplified pattern for the time of year with a trough east of the Rockies and a big upper high over the western states. This pattern is conducive for above average temperatures. The monsoon could very well affect the Sierra Nevada and southern California, but by and large, the valley will remain dry.
July: July, of course, is typically hot and if this model has any credence, it will be hotter than average. With a dominant Four Corners high and a trough over the middle of the country, usual July dry conditions will prevail.
July, August, September: This model is indicating that the western U.S., including California, will experience above average temperatures overall during the mid to late summer period. Precipitation is expected to be near average, which, of course, is very little and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Periods of near calm conditions can be expected nights and mornings through Saturday.
Rain: Another round of mid and high level moisture will arrive tonight through Thursday in the form of variable cloudiness. It’s possible a few sprinkles could occur as this batch moves through, but the chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low. I anticipate dry weather Thursday night and beyond, however we’ll have to watch for the return of the monsoon possibly as early as Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/60% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/45%
Actual Humidity range July 23, 2019: Delano, 90%/32% Porterville, 77%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.85, Parlier 1.90, Blackwell 2.33, Arvin 1.95, Orange Cove 2.05, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 90, Delano 85
Record Temperatures: 113/55. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 973 +169
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 80.3 +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .T +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:59 am Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 90 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 90 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 91 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 100 / 69 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 99 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 70 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 71 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 101 / 75 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 72 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP T 8.47 176 3.01 63 4.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.78 13.95
Next report: Thursday, July 25