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Forecast

August 3, 2019/report

August 3, 2019

Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is back over its typical summertime position over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.  The high has been slowly expanding towards the west and California is now on its western edge.  Warmer locations this afternoon will move into the lower 100s with readings in the 100 to 105 degree range expected Sunday and Monday.  The clockwise flow around the high has  shifted the winds aloft to a southerly direction instead of the southwesterly flow of the past several days.  Embedded within this flow are mid and high level clouds from the monsoon, however models indicate the deepest subtropical moisture will remain to our east so that is all we’ll see, just some high clouds at times.  The real heat belt is over the lower deserts of southern California and Arizona where some locations will see temperatures above 115.

 

Readings will begin to slowly come down Tuesday as models show a low center developing west of the Oregon coastline.  This will deepen the marine  layer which currently is only 1,200 feet deep and will allow that  modified sea breeze to lower temperatures further once we get to the Wednesday-Friday time frame.  With a little luck, we should see temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

 

Some models indicate the high will move back to the Four Corners region by next weekend.  On paper, this doesn’t appear to be a particularly strong system, so it would appear temperatures would only climb back up to seasonal levels.

 

Forecast: Occasional mid and high level clouds, but mostly clear skies will prevail through Tuesday and hot.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday with a slow cooling trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 99/64/101/67/102 Reedley 100/65/102/66/102 Dinuba 99/63/100/66/101
Porterville 100/64/101/65/102 Lindsay 99/63/100/65/101 Delano 100/67/101/68/102
Bakersfield 102/73/102/75/103 Taft 100/74/102/77/103 Arvin 102/70/103/72/104
Lamont 101/68/103/69/104 Pixley 100/65/102/67/102 Tulare 99/64/100/67/101
Woodlake 99/63/100/67/101 Hanford 100/65/102/67/102 Orosi 100/63/101/65/101

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

67/100

Wednesday

Mostly clear

63/96

Thursday

Mostly clear

60/94

Friday

Mostly clear

59/93

Saturday

Mostly clear

62/97

 

Two Week Outlook: August 10 through August16:  this model actually shows much of the U.S. enjoying below average temperatures.  The exception is the western one-third where temperatures will be marginally above average.  No precipitation is expected at this time.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings with local gusts to near 20 possible.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/55%

Actual Humidity range August 2, 2019: Delano, 84%/29% Porterville, NA%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.00, Parlier 1.96, Blackwell 2.33, Arvin 2.15, Orange Cove 2.15, Porterville 2.08, Delano 1.94. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 91, Delano 82

Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 99/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1170 +221

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 81.5 +1.5

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:07 am  Sunset: 8:02 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:57

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  95 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  66 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  97 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  96 /  60 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  96 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  94 /  64 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1647 /  95 /  71 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  93 /   M / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   175    3.01    62     4.85     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.79    13.95

Next report:  Monday, August 5