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Forecast

August 2, 2019/report

August 2, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure is shifting back towards the west with the center of circulation over New Mexico this morning.  Twenty-four hours from now, the high will be centered over the Four Corners region then will possibly shift into Arizona late Sunday and Monday.  As the high expands in our direction, temperatures will move into the lower triple digit range Saturday and generally into the 101 to 105 degree range Sunday and Monday.  The clockwise flow around the high will generate a southerly flow with monsoonal moisture embedded within the flow.  This time around, however, it does not appear any deeper subtropical moisture will be involved, so just occasional mid and high level clouds can be expected.  Even the Sierra Nevada should remain precipitation free.

 

This latest upward spike in temperatures will last through Monday.  Models are still having a difficult time nailing down a pattern for Wednesday and beyond.  Some kind of trough or possibly even a low pressure center will be off the California coast, increasing the onshore flow as the marine layer deepens.  By Tuesday, upper 90s will return, possibly leveling off in to the mid 90s next Thursday and lasting possibly through the following weekend.

 

The flow aloft will be generally out of the southwest Tuesday and for the remainder of next week, keeping the monsoon to the south and east of our region.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight.  Mostly clear but with occasional mid and high level clouds Sunday and Monday and hot.  Mostly clear Monday night through Friday with a slow cooling trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 96/62/100/66/102 Reedley 98/63/100/67/102 Dinuba 97/62/99/65/100
Porterville 98/64/100/67/102 Lindsay 98/63/100/66/101 Delano 98/66/101/68/103
Bakersfield 99/70/102/73/103 Taft 98/73/101/75/104 Arvin 99/66/102/70/104
Lamont 99/67/102/70/104 Pixley 98/64/100/67/102 Tulare 97/61/99/67/101
Woodlake 98/63/100/66/102 Hanford 98/64/101/66/102 Orosi 97/63/99/66/101

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

68/104

Tuesday

Mostly clear

65/99

Wednesday

Mostly clear

63/97

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/94

Friday

Mostly clear

60/94

 

Two Week Outlook: August 7 through August13:  This model shows central California sandwiched between a trough of low pressure off shore and upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest which is typical for early August. This will result in near average temperatures and dry conditions through mid August.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings with local gusts to near 20 possible.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity range August 1, 2019: Delano, 87%/26% Porterville, NA%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.99, Blackwell 2.42, Arvin 2.03, Orange Cove 2.20, Porterville 2.11, Delano 1.96. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 91, Delano 82

Record Temperatures: 112/53. Average Temperatures: 99/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1153 +218

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 81.0 +1.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.45.  Month to Date: .00 +.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:06 am  Sunset: 8:03 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:59

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  61 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 100 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 100 /  62 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  61 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  61 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  98 /  73 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  91 /  64 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   175    3.01    62     4.85     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.79    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, August 3