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Forecast

August 20, 2019/report

August 20, 2019

Summary: Northern and central California remain under the influence of a weak trough of low pressure stretching from southern British Columbia to off the  northern California coast.  The marine layer this  morning stands at 2,600 feet and satellite imagery indicates the coastal low clouds and fog have made it to the last mountain range separating the Coast Range from the west side of the valley.  The current observation at Pacheco Pass has sustained winds out of the southwest at 18 MPH and at Travers Air Force Base in the Delta, winds are out of the south at 22 MPH, so obviously modified marine air continues to surge into the valley.

 

Like yesterday, it’s doubtful readings will even reach the 90 degree mark from western Merced County northward with low to mid 90s in the central and south valley.  Temperatures will remain fairly consistent through Thursday.  By Friday, upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region will expand back towards the Pacific coast and will begin a warming trend which will translate into the lower triple digits over the weekend.

 

By early next week, a southerly flow will develop, possible transporting a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture into central and southern California.  This morning, however, the tropical system which had been projected to develop along the Baja coast no longer shows up.

 

Medium range models indicate strong upper level  high pressure will be over California for much of next week.  This could lead to a string of triple digit days.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Friday.  Mostly clear and hot Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 91/59/93/61/95 Reedley 93/60/94/61/96 Dinuba 93/59/94/61/94
Porterville 94/59/94/61/97 Lindsay 94/58/94/60/96 Delano 94/63/94/64/97
Bakersfield 95/67/95/68/97 Taft 94/71/95/72/96 Arvin 96/63/96/64/98
Lamont 94/63/95/65/97 Pixley 94/62/94/63/96 Tulare 93/59/94/61/95
Woodlake 93/59/94/61/95 Hanford 94/60/94/62/96 Orosi 93/58/93/60/95

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

66/100

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/101

Sunday

Mostly clear

67/102

Monday

Mostly clear

68/102

Tuesday

Mostly clear

68/103

 

Two Week Outlook: August 27 through September 2:  Above average temperatures can be expected during this time frame.  There is indication on this  model that we could see a visit from the monsoon or even the possibility of tropical moisture moving into at least southern California.  The chance of rain will remain very low with the exception of the mountain areas.  Nevertheless, eyes to the south would be wise as we move into the latter part of the month.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be out of the  northwest at 8 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.  During the night and morning hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH through Wednesday.  Winds Thursday through Friday will be generally less than 12 MPH.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: :Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/65%

Actual Humidity range August 19, 2019: Delano, 78%/27% Porterville, 58%/18%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.80, Parlier 1.80, Blackwell 2.23, Arvin 2.07, Orange Cove 1.97, Porterville 1.93, Delano 1.79. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 91, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 91, Delano 79

Record Temperatures: 108/54. Average Temperatures: 97/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1462 +280

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 81.8 +3.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.02

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.43.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:21 am  Sunset: 7:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:24

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  92 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  95 /  64 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  94 /  59 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  95 /  67 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  94 /  67 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  86 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   173    3.02    62     4.90     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   119    9.62    77    12.48    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.79    13.95

 

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Next report:  Wednesday, August 21