August 19, 2019
Summary: Even though the air mass aloft is quite warm, the amount of marine air now surging into the valley will counteract the generally warm air mass. The latest sounding at Monterey indicates the depth of the marine layer is near 3,000 feet with the latest reading at Pacheco Pass showing wind speeds of 24 MPH, gusting to 35. Most locations in Merced County this afternoon will not reach the 90 degree mark with low to mid 90s from Fresno County south. Models indicate just slightly higher pressure over the next 72 hours for a slow warming trend. Once we get into the Thursday-Friday time frame, upper level high pressure currently over eastern New Mexico and Texas will build westward, allowing temperatures to once again top the century mark.
The pattern is becoming more interesting for the second half of the weekend and into next week. A large high will set up shop over the Four Corners region, creating a south to possibly southeast flow aloft. Models also show a tropical storm moving northwestward off the Baja, California coast. Models vary on the placement and intensity of this potential system, but for now it does bare watching as we move into the early part of next week. It’s possible monsoonal moisture that may move into central California could result in afternoon and evening thunderstorms again over the Sierra Nevada by next Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Wednesday. mostly clear and hot Thursday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 91/58/93/59/96 | Reedley 92/60/94/61/96 | Dinuba 91/57/93/60/95 |
| Porterville 93/60/95/62/97 | Lindsay 93/58/95/60/96 | Delano 93/62/95/63/97 |
| Bakersfield 94/67/95/68/97 | Taft 93/68/94/69/97 | Arvin 94/59/96/63/98 |
| Lamont 95/63/96/64/98 | Pixley 93/59/94/60/96 | Tulare 92/57/94/60/96 |
| Woodlake 93/59/95/62/97 | Hanford 92/60/94/62/97 | Orosi 93/57/95/59/96 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 63/100 |
Friday
Mostly clear 66/101 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/102 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 67/102 |
Monday
Mostly clear 67/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 26 through September 1: Above average temperatures can be expected during this time frame. There is indication on this model that we could see a visit from the monsoon or even the possibility of tropical moisture moving into at least southern California. The chance of rain will remain very low with the exception of the mountain areas. Nevertheless, eyes to the south would be wise as we move into the latter part of the month.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH today and at times through Tuesday with local gusts to 25 MPH possible along the west side. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be at or less than 12 MPH.
Rain: No precipitation is expected for now. We will be watching through next week a possible south to southeast flow developing, possibly moving a limited amount of monsoonal moisture into central California. Models also show some kind of tropical disturbance moving along the Baja coast over the weekend and into next week. For now, I don’t see a problem with this system. Nevertheless, it will require being watched.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: :Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/65%
Actual Humidity range August 18, 2019: Delano, 69%/15% Porterville, 53%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.83, Parlier 1.82, Blackwell 2.20, Arvin 2.07, Orange Cove 1.98, Porterville 1.95, Delano 1.90. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 91, Delano 80
Record Temperatures: 110/54. Average Temperatures: 97/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1477 +278
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 82.0 +3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.43. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20 am Sunset: 7:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:26
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 97 / 71 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 95 / 70 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 173 3.02 62 4.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.79 13.95
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Next report: Tuesday, August 20