Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

August 21, 2019/report

August 21, 2019

Summary: The amount of modified marine air moving into the valley has slowed.  The marine layer along the coast has peeled back to near 1,800 feet.  Even so, synoptically, a trough of low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  This will maintain moderate temperatures through Thursday.  Currently, upper level high pressure is centered over New Mexico and links up with another high center off the northern Baja coastline.  Over the weekend, the main center of high pressure on some models is right over California, once again driving temperatures into triple digits.

 

Most models this morning are once again showing a tropical low off the Baja, California coastline over the weekend.  This system is projected to unwind and become a tropical low off the southern California coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  For now, it appears the moisture field around this feature will remain off shore, but it still deserves close scrutiny as we move into next week.  It looks like the monsoon will remain south of our region for the next seven days, at least, so generally clear skies with above average temperatures will prevail from this weekend through next week unless that aforementioned tropical low misbehaves.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Friday night.  mostly clear and hot Saturday through Wednesday with occasional high clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 93/61/95/64/100 Reedley 94/61/96/64/99 Dinuba 93/61/95/64/98
Porterville 95/63/96/67/100 Lindsay 94/61/96/63/99 Delano 95/66/97/68/100
Bakersfield 95/69/97/74/101 Taft 94/73/97/76/100 Arvin 95/66/97/67/101
Lamont 95/66/97/68/101 Pixley 95/63/96/66/99 Tulare 93/61/95/65/99
Woodlake 94/62/95/66/99 Hanford 93/62/96/66/99 Orosi 94/61/96/65/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

65/101

Sunday

Mostly clear

66/102

Monday

Mostly clear

68/103

Tuesday

Mostly clear

68/102

Wednesday

Mostly clear

68/103

 

Two Week Outlook: August 27 through September 2:  Above average temperatures can be expected during this time frame.  There is indication on this  model that we could see a visit from the monsoon or even the possibility of tropical moisture moving into at least southern California.  The chance of rain will remain very low with the exception of the mountain areas.  Nevertheless, eyes to the south would be wise as we move into the latter part of the month.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side, through Thursday.  Winds Friday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and generally less than 10 MPH nights and mornings.

 

Rain: Dry conditions will prevail for the next week to ten days.  I hedge just a bit for roughly Tuesday through Wednesday of next week.  A tropical system will be moving northwestward off the Baja coast over the weekend.  As it weakens further and just becomes a low pressure system off the southern California coast, most models show what moisture will be left off shore.  Still, these features can be tricky and we’ll have to monitor it closely over the weekend and into next week for any possible changes.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: :Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/60%

Actual Humidity range August 20, 2019: Delano, 77%/30% Porterville, 69%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell 2.20, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove 1.95, Porterville 1.91, Delano 1.87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 91, Delano 79

Record Temperatures: 108/51. Average Temperatures: 96/63

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1477 +282

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 81.7 +3.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.02

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.43.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:22 am  Sunset: 7:41 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:21

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  93 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  94 /  64 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  93 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  93 /  71 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  58 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   122    3.95    62     6.37     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   172    3.02    61     4.93     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   119    9.62    77    12.50    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.80    13.95

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Next report:  Thursday, August 22