August 21, 2019
Summary: The amount of modified marine air moving into the valley has slowed. The marine layer along the coast has peeled back to near 1,800 feet. Even so, synoptically, a trough of low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will maintain moderate temperatures through Thursday. Currently, upper level high pressure is centered over New Mexico and links up with another high center off the northern Baja coastline. Over the weekend, the main center of high pressure on some models is right over California, once again driving temperatures into triple digits.
Most models this morning are once again showing a tropical low off the Baja, California coastline over the weekend. This system is projected to unwind and become a tropical low off the southern California coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. For now, it appears the moisture field around this feature will remain off shore, but it still deserves close scrutiny as we move into next week. It looks like the monsoon will remain south of our region for the next seven days, at least, so generally clear skies with above average temperatures will prevail from this weekend through next week unless that aforementioned tropical low misbehaves.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday night. mostly clear and hot Saturday through Wednesday with occasional high clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/61/95/64/100 | Reedley 94/61/96/64/99 | Dinuba 93/61/95/64/98 |
| Porterville 95/63/96/67/100 | Lindsay 94/61/96/63/99 | Delano 95/66/97/68/100 |
| Bakersfield 95/69/97/74/101 | Taft 94/73/97/76/100 | Arvin 95/66/97/67/101 |
| Lamont 95/66/97/68/101 | Pixley 95/63/96/66/99 | Tulare 93/61/95/65/99 |
| Woodlake 94/62/95/66/99 | Hanford 93/62/96/66/99 | Orosi 94/61/96/65/98 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 65/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 66/102 |
Monday
Mostly clear 68/103 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 68/102 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 68/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 27 through September 2: Above average temperatures can be expected during this time frame. There is indication on this model that we could see a visit from the monsoon or even the possibility of tropical moisture moving into at least southern California. The chance of rain will remain very low with the exception of the mountain areas. Nevertheless, eyes to the south would be wise as we move into the latter part of the month.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side, through Thursday. Winds Friday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and generally less than 10 MPH nights and mornings.
Rain: Dry conditions will prevail for the next week to ten days. I hedge just a bit for roughly Tuesday through Wednesday of next week. A tropical system will be moving northwestward off the Baja coast over the weekend. As it weakens further and just becomes a low pressure system off the southern California coast, most models show what moisture will be left off shore. Still, these features can be tricky and we’ll have to monitor it closely over the weekend and into next week for any possible changes.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: :Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/60%
Actual Humidity range August 20, 2019: Delano, 77%/30% Porterville, 69%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell 2.20, Arvin 2.05, Orange Cove 1.95, Porterville 1.91, Delano 1.87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 91, Delano 79
Record Temperatures: 108/51. Average Temperatures: 96/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1477 +282
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 81.7 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.43. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:22 am Sunset: 7:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:21
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 93 / 71 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.92 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 122 3.95 62 6.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 172 3.02 61 4.93 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.80 13.95
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Next report: Thursday, August 22