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Forecast

September 3, 2019/report

September 3, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure remains in a stationary position over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.  The winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere over southern California are out of the southeast while the winds over northern California are out of the southwest.  Monsoonal moisture continues to be drawn into southern California via the southeast flow aloft.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop because of this moisture source over the mountains and deserts of southern California and even up the southern Sierra Nevada during the afternoons and evenings through Thursday.  Central California remains on the western periphery of this high so even though temperatures will be above average through Thursday, excessively hot weather is  not anticipated with readings mostly in the lower 100s.

 

By Thursday  night and Friday, a weak low will be off the northern California coast.  It will move northeastward into Oregon Friday night.  this change will turn the winds aloft out of the southwest, ending the monsoonal flow.  Another stronger trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday and Monday.  On paper, this system appears to be strong enough to bring a touch of fall with temperatures possibly lowering into the mid to upper 80s.  However, medium range models indicate another high will develop by the middle of next week for a return of above average temperatures.

 

Hurricane Juliette is located 440 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas this morning.  This category 3 hurricane will move west/northwest farther out to sea and will not parallel Baja the way earlier models had anticipated.  Looks like we can eliminate that moisture source, for now anyway.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional mid and high level clouds, it will be mostly clear and hot through Thursday.  Mostly clear and cooler Thursday night through Tuesday of next week.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 100/68/101/69/101` Reedley 100/69/101/70/101 Dinuba 99/68/100/69/100
Porterville 101/68/101/69/102 Lindsay 100/67/101/68/101 Delano 101/72/101/73/101
Bakersfield 101/77/102/78/102 Taft 100/80/101/81/101 Arvin 103/73/103/73/103
Lamont 102/73/102/74/103 Pixley 101/69/101/70/101 Tulare 100/67/101/68/101
Woodlake 99/67/100/68/100 Hanford 100/70/100/71/101 Orosi 99/67/100/68/100

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

67/97

Saturday

Mostly clear

62/90

Sunday

Mostly clear

60/87

Monday

Mostly clear

58/87

Tuesday

Mostly clear

59/89

 

Two Week Outlook: September 10 through September 16: This model is not indicating strong trends for either above or below average temperatures.  This model indicates average precipitation, which, this time of year,  means the chance of precipitation will remain quite low.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/75% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/55%

Actual Humidity range September 2, 2019: Delano, 73%/24% Porterville, 64%/14%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.68, Blackwell 1.85, Arvin 1.90, Orange Cove 1.83, Porterville 1.69, Delano 1.67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 79, Porterville NA, Delano 76

Record Temperatures: 111/52. Average Temperatures: 94/61

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1725 +372

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 850 +9.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.52.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.41.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:32 am  Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:53

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 104 /  74 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 104 /  69 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  78 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 102 /  71 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 / 103 /  81 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   133    9.22    67    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.85    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.22    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.78    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.33    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.93    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   122    3.95    62     6.39     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   170    3.02    61     4.99     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.66    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   118    9.62    77    12.56    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.81    13.95

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Next report:  Wednesday, September 4