September 4, 2019
Summary: High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere stretches from Oklahoma westward to southern California. The winds aloft remain out of the south along the western edge of the high. This will continue to pump monsoonal moisture into southern California and up the Sierra Nevada for more afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity over the higher elevations. Isolated thunderstorms will also be prevalent over the mountains and deserts of southern California, including the Kern County mountains. Models do show another surge of monsoonal moisture moving into southern California Thursday, affecting the Sierra Nevada Thursday afternoon and evening. The main impact on the valley will be occasional periods of partly cloudy weather. A few sprinkles could occur Thursday, but the chance of measurable rain is about nil.
Hurricane Juliette is well to the west/southwest of Cabo San Lucas and will continue its west/northwest path, heading further out to sea. A weak low will move into northern California and Oregon Friday, resulting in the beginning stages of a cooling trend. The marine layer which is currently only 1,200 feet will deepen rapidly and will begin to spill into the valley Friday afternoon.
A considerably stronger trough of low pressure will stretch from off the British Columbia coast into northern and central California late Saturday and Sunday for much cooler temperatures as a touch of fall greets us over the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will lower well down into the 80s.
Medium range models indicate upper level high pressure will again build over the western states next Wednesday for the next warming trend. No precipitation is expected in the short or medium term.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday evening and continued hot. Mostly clear later Thursday night through Sunday with a cooling trend. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/68/100/67/96 | Reedley 101/69/101/68/98 | Dinuba 99/67/99/66/97 |
| Porterville 101/67/101/67/98 | Lindsay 100/67/100/66/99 | Delano 101/72/101/69/99 |
| Bakersfield 102/77/102/74/98 | Taft 101/80/101/77/99 | Arvin 103/74/101/73/99 |
| Lamont 102/75/101/73/99 | Pixley/101/70/100/68/98 | Tulare 100/67/99/66/98` |
| Woodlake 100/68/100/67/98 | Hanford 101/70/101/68/99 | Orosi 100/67/100/66/97 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 60/89 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 10 through September 16: This model is not indicating strong trends for either above or below average temperatures. This model indicates average precipitation, which, this time of year, means the chance of precipitation will remain quite low.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Thursday night. winds will be out of the northwest Friday at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side afternoons and evenings. Winds Saturday will generally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts over 30 MPH possible, mainly along the west side and especially along the Interstate 5 corridor.
Rain: The last batch of monsoonal moisture for a while will move into southern California Thursday then up the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible occasional cloud cover Thursday could be dense enough for a few sprinkles over the valley floor, but nothing measurable is anticipated. The winds aloft will be out of the southwest Thursday night, sweeping the monsoon east of our region for dry weather which will continue through the weekend and I have high confidence dry weather will last through next week, as well.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: : Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range September 3, 2019: Delano, 77%/21% Porterville, 72%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.67, Blackwell 1.81, Arvin 1.87, Orange Cove 1.79, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.65. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 79, Porterville NA, Delano 76
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 94/61
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1745 +381
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 84.8 +8.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.52. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.41. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 7:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 100 / 73 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 100 / 74 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 100 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 99 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 122 3.95 62 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 170 3.02 61 4.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 77 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.81 13.95
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Next report: Thursday, September 5