September 10, 2019
Summary: Today will be the coolest we have experienced since late May. A deep trough of low pressure is centered over Washington state this morning with a trough extending into northern and central California. The freezing level has dropped from 14,500 feet down to 12,000 feet over Oakland and near the Oregon border, the freezing level overnight was 9,500 feet, indicating much cooler air has moved in aloft. Couple that with a rather robust onshore flow, meaning plenty of modified ocean air moving inland, and you can safely predict temperatures will struggle to reach only into the lower 80s this afternoon.
The trough will begin to shift eastward later tonight and Wednesday. even so, readings will still be in the mid 80s Wednesday. upper level high pressure will build along the Pacific coast and couple up with another high building over the Desert Southwest for a rapid warming trend. This will shoot temperatures right back into the low to mid 90s Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday. it’s possible hottest locations Saturday could once again touch the century mark.
There are certainly clues that the fall season is beginning to show changes a bit more often now. Models are coming into better agreement this morning in placing a strong low just off the Washington coast Sunday. The bottom side of this low is projected to slide into California Sunday night and Monday. There is some indication now that showers will spread into northern California and down the Sierra Nevada with another rapid downturn in temperatures. Readings by Monday may very well fall back into the low to mid 80s and I wouldn’t even rule out upper 70s Tuesday.
By the latter part of next week, most models indicate a big ridge will build along the Pacific coast all the way into the Gulf of Alaska with California on its eastern fringe. This would certainly result in another rapid warming trend.
Forecast: Clear and mild through Wednesday. clear with a warming trend Thursday through Saturday. mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday. Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/53/85/56/93 | Reedley 81/53/84/57/94 | Dinuba 80/52/85/56/93 |
| Porterville 82/53/85/55/94 | Lindsay 81/52/85/58/94 | Delano 82/55/85/57/95 |
| Bakersfield 83/59/85/63/95 | Taft 82/62/85/66/95 | Arvin 83/57/85/59/95 |
| Lamont 82/56/85/61/96 | Pixley 82/55/85/58/94 | Tulare 80/53/84/56/93 |
| Woodlake 81/53/84/57/93 | Hanford 81/54/84/57/93 | Orosi 81/53/85/56/93 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 62/98 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 62/99 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/83 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 52/80 |
Two Week Outlook: September 17 through September 23: This model indicates there’s a reasonably decent chance of above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and northern California and average rainfall over central California. This time of year, that simply means the risk of precipitation will be low. Temperatures should be fairly close to average levels.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH today through the late evening hours with local gusts to 25 MPH possible, mainly along the western side of Kings, Fresno, and Madera Counties. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and mainly out of the northwest and 4 to 8 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through the weekend and more than likely well beyond. However, I do want to closely study the pattern for Monday and Tuesday of next week as there will be a chance of showers over northern California and the Sierra Nevada due to a strong low over the Pacific Northwest. Also, some models show a tropical storm trying to move northwestward along the Baja coast next week. There is always that low chance of moisture from these systems getting caught up in low pressure systems moving into the western U.S. Currently, that chance appears very low, but does deserve further study.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: : Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range September 9, 2019: Delano, 76%/18% Porterville, 66%/10%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.66, Parlier 1.64, Blackwell 1.72, Arvin 1.83, Orange Cove 1.75, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 79, Porterville NA, Delano 76
Record Temperatures: 105/47. Average Temperatures: 94/61
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1765 +390
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 84.9 +8.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.51. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.40. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 am Sunset: 7:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 87 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 76 / 57 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 85 / 65 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.80 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 63 12.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 58 12.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.35 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 169 3.08 61 5.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 77 12.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.83 13.95
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Next report: Wednesday, September 11