September 16, 2019
Summary: A cold front extends from the northern Sierra Nevada southwestward to the Bay Area then southwestward out to sea. A narrow band of light rain extends along the front. However, Doppler radar and satellite imagery show a distinct weakening of the front as it moves steadily east/southeast. I feel safe now in taking the chance of showers out of the forecast even in Fresno and Madera Counties. We will see increased cloud cover for a time this morning with clearing skies this afternoon behind the front. The trough of low pressure itself will begin to move into the Great Basin later this afternoon and evening. The main impact on our weather, outside of the cloud cover, will be much cooler temperatures. Already this morning, most locations have readings 5 to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. When all is said and done, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday with most locations in the low to mid 80s.
As soon as this trough moves out of the picture, a new low will drop into the Pacific Northwest and eventually will extend a trough into northern and central California late Wednesday through Thursday. Models continue to indicate this system will increase the chance of showers over parts of northern California with central California remaining dry with the possible exception of the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite north. It will maintain well below average temperatures through Friday along with another round of gusty winds, mainly late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Models are in decent agreement this morning on the pattern for this weekend and into next week. A zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will extend eastward into California and into the interior west for a warming trend. Readings could rise into the lower 90s as early as Sunday afternoon. Some models actually place the high right over central California by the middle of next week. If this occurs, we could see a return to toasty afternoon temperatures. Also of interest, for the second day in a row, the two week model is indicating tropical moisture will move into southern California and southwest Arizona after the 23. That’s a low confidence projection that far out, but something definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon. Mostly clear Tuesday and Tuesday night. partly cloudy again by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Becoming mostly clear later Thursday night and on through Monday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/52/81/49/83 | Reedley 83/53/81/51/83 | Dinuba 82/52/81/50/81 |
| Porterville 84/51/82/49/83 | Lindsay 84/49/81/48/82 | Delano 85/55/82/53/84 |
| Bakersfield 85/57/82/56/84 | Taft 84/60/82/57/83 | Arvin 85/55/82/53/83 |
| Lamont 85/56/82/53/84 | Pixley 84/53/82/50/83 | Tulare 81/51/81/49/83 |
| Woodlake 82/51/81/50/82 | Hanford 83/53/82/51/83 | Orosi 82/51/81/49/83 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 51/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 56/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 23 through September 29: This model continues to be a high confidence forecast for above average temperatures. It has also trended in recent days to show the possibility of showers spreading into southern California and southwest Arizona. We’re into the highest risk time of year for tropical systems to affect California, so a watchful eye to our south will be necessary over the coming weeks.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through this evening with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly in western Kings, Madera, and Fresno Counties. Later tonight through Wednesday morning, winds will generally be at or less than 12 MPH. winds later afternoon through Thursday will again increase to 10 to 15 MPH, mainly out of the northwest, with gusts to 30 MPH, again mainly along the west side.
Rain: The chance for measurable rain, even in Fresno and Madera Counties, is now very low as the cold front is weakening as it pushes through the valley. Another low will arrive late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will also be dry. For now, it appears the next week to possibly ten days will be rain free. The two week model for the 23 through the 29 is showing showers trying to develop over southern California and Arizona. We are now at the peak of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, so that is something to watch.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: : Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity range September 13, 2019: Delano, 65%/15% Porterville, 83%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.49, Parlier 1.44, Blackwell 1.54, Arvin 1.60, Orange Cove 1.56, Porterville 1.44, Delano 1.42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 75, Porterville NA, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 105/49. Average Temperatures: 91/59
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1870 +404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.1 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.47. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.40. Month to Date: .02 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 7:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 100/ 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 100/ 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 99 / 69 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 97 / 74 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 103 8.17 63 12.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 57 12.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.38 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.42 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 168 3.08 61 5.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 56 12.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.86 13.95
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Next report: Tuesday, September 17