September 17, 2019
Summary: The trough of low pressure which resulted in such a pleasant day yesterday has already raced eastward into Wyoming and Utah. The freezing level dropped all the way down to 9,400 feet over Oakland, indicating the air aloft is still quite mild.
Storm number 2 is located near Vancouver Island this morning and, like its predecessor, will dig a trough down into the Pacific Northwest all the way southward into central California. Showers will again spread over northern California with the rain line spreading as far south as a Monterey/Stockton line. No precipitation is expected in the central or south valley with the possible exception of a few sprinkles in Madera County later Wednesday afternoon and night. That’s when a rapidly weakening cold front will move through.
As you might expect, there will be a renewal of the well below average temperatures. In fact, readings may not reach 80 degrees Thursday afternoon at most locations. Somewhat breezy conditions will also begin Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. This system will also be a fast mover. It will shift into the interior west Thursday night, finally allowing upper level high pressure to begin to build in from the west during the first half of the weekend.
Models are in a distinct state of war on a pattern for Sunday through Wednesday of next week. One model shows a trough of low pressure moving through California Sunday afternoon into early Monday with no precipitation but another cooling trend may begin. Another shows the formation of a low center over Nevada by Monday evening for a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. One thing is for sure, the large area of upper level high pressure over the west which had previously been a dominant theme is no longer. A return to hot weather is not expected at this time. We will have to watch the possibility of a tropical system moving northward off the Baja coastline over the weekend. One model actually shows this system moving through central Baja with rain spreading into Arizona and New Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Just something to be aware of for now.
Forecast: Occasional high clouds, but otherwise mostly clear through tonight. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night. partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday night with the possible exception of the Kern County portion of the valley which may see upslope clouds through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/50/82/53/77 | Reedley 81/50/82/54/78 | Dinuba 80/49/81/54/77 |
| Porterville 82/49/82/53/79 | Lindsay 82/48/82/52/78 | Delano 81/54/82/57/79 |
| Bakersfield 83/57/83/59/79 | Taft 80/61/82/63/79 | Arvin 83/53/83/56/79 |
| Lamont 82/54/53/56/78 | Pixley 81/51/82/55/79 | Tulare 80/50/82/54/78 |
| Woodlake 81/49/82/53/78 | Hanford 82/51/82/55/78 | Orosi 81/50/82/54/79 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 49/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/90 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 55/91 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 56/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Two Week Outlook: September 24 through September 30: This model shows upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific with the eastern side of the high over California, meaning the chance of precipitation will be very low. Temperatures can be expected to range generally above seasonal averages.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Wednesday morning, increasing Wednesday afternoon to 10 to 20 MPH, through Thursday, with gusts to 25 MPH mainly along the west side. Winds later Thursday through Friday will decrease to 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Thursday night.
Rain: No precipitation is expected at this time from the second low pressure system which is currently west/northwest of the Washington coast. Light showers will spread down to a Monterey/Merced line Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but for now it appears the central and south valley will remain dry with only a slight chance of sprinkles over Madera County. Behind this system, dry weather will prevail through the weekend. Models vary considerably for Sunday through Wednesday, but barring anything unforeseen, dry weather will continue, although we will have to watch a tropical system moving up the Baja coast this weekend. For now, it looks like any moisture from this source will move into Arizona and New Mexico.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: : Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity range September 16, 2019: Delano, 76%/30% Porterville, 71%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.40, Blackwell 1.54, Arvin 1.56, Orange Cove 1.53, Porterville 1.40, Delano 1.39. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 75, Porterville NA, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 105/48. Average Temperatures: 91/59
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1906 +413
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 78.6 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.46. Month to Date: .00 -.06
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.40. Month to Date: .02 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 7:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:22
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 81 / 58 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / M /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 81 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 62 / 0.06 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.21 18.58 134 9.22 66 13.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.12 13.47 104 8.17 63 12.93 13.11
MERCED T 13.27 108 7.06 57 12.33 12.50
MADERA T 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.87 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 10.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.42 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 168 3.08 61 5.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.09 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.62 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.86 13.95
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Next report: Wednesday, September 18