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Forecast

September 18, 2019/report

September 18, 2019

Summary: The latest low pressure system is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Light showers or sprinkles are occurring as far south as a Bay Area/Chico line and will have very little impact on central California other than to cause temperatures to drop even more on Thursday.  As pressures at the surface fall tonight and Thursday over the Great Basin, Pacific maritime air will again flood the valley.  Most locations Thursday afternoon may not even reach the 80 degree mark.

 

On Friday, a ridge of high pressure currently lurking off shore will begin to shift inland over California but, with a pool of relatively mild air trapped on the valley floor, temperatures will remain rather October like.

 

Yet another low will drop into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday then into the Great Basin Monday and possibly near the Four Corners region Tuesday.  This pattern will have to be watched carefully as there are three tropical storms churning in the eastern Pacific, two of which will be off the Baja, California coast during the latter part of the weekend and early next week.  The National Hurricane Center places the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena off the central Baja coast and by 12:00am Monday, Mario will be several hundred miles west of the southern tip of Baja.  For now, it appears moisture from these two storms will remain to our south and east.  Still, careful scrutiny is deserved in forecasting this pattern, mainly because of the differences in model placement of that low over the interior west later next week.  For now, we’ll go ahead and say so far, so good.

 

A new high will begin to build inland next Tuesday night and Wednesday via the eastern Pacific for the next warming trend, only to be replaced by yet another trough to our north during the latter part of next week and into next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 82/53/77/49/82 Reedley 82/53/78/49/82 Dinuba 81/52/78/48/81
Porterville 83/52/79/49/83 Lindsay 82/51/78/48/83 Delano 83/57/79/51/83
Bakersfield 84/59/78/57/83 Taft 81/63/77/59/83 Arvin 84/55/79/52/83
Lamont 83/58/78/53/84 Pixley 82/54/79/51/83 Tulare 81/52/78/49/82
Woodlake 81/52/78/48/82 Hanford 82/54/78/51/82 Orosi 81/52/78/48/82

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/90

Sunday

Partly cloudy

55/89

Monday

Partly cloudy

54/82

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

55/86

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy

57/86

 

Two Week Outlook: September 25 through October 1: this time around, this model indicates above average temperatures will prevail.  It is also indicating the chance for above average precipitation.  Even though the risk factor is still fairly low, it’s higher on this projection than in the past, so stay tuned.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds today will be mostly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH this evening and continuing into Thursday morning with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.  Winds Friday and Saturday will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH with stronger afternoon and evening gusts.

 

Rain: For now, we will keep the forecast dry, however the tropics are quite interesting this morning due to the fact we have three named systems in the eastern Pacific, two of which are forecast to be off the Baja coast this weekend and early next week.  Tropical storm Lorena is placed by the Hurricane Center just west of the coast of Baja Sunday and Tropical storm Mario is placed several hundred miles off the southern Baja coast by 12:am Monday.  Some of this moisture will end up in Arizona and New Mexico, but for now most forecast models keep this moisture to our south and east.  Due to the fact there will be a new low in the Great Basin Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch this closely.

 

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: : Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/80%

Actual Humidity range September 17, 2019: Delano, 86%/34% Porterville, 84%/26%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.38, Blackwell 1.51, Arvin 1.54, Orange Cove 1.49, Porterville 1.38, Delano 1.38. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 75, Porterville NA, Delano 72

Record Temperatures: 107/48. Average Temperatures: 90/59

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1910 +409

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 78.0 +3.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.46.  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.82, or +1.40.  Month to Date: .02 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:44 am  Sunset: 7:00 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:20

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  83 /  50 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  83 /  58 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  83 /  54 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  82 /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  81 /  58 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  81 /  56 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  78 /  61 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  82 /  54 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.58   134    9.22    66    13.88    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.47   104    8.17    63    12.94    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   108    7.06    57    12.34    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    96    7.22    61    11.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   104    6.73    59    11.39    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    95    4.70    47    10.01    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   122    3.95    62     6.42     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.48   168    3.08    61     5.06     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.89   109    7.16    56    12.72    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   118    9.62    76    12.63    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   113    6.01    43    13.87    13.95

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Next report:  Thursday, September 19