September 19, 2019
Summary: Low pressure stretches from the Canadian Rockies southward to central California this morning. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover banking up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Doppler radar is picking up isolated showers over the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Madera and Fresno Counties. Otherwise, central California is dry.
The low will cause temperatures to drop even more today. In fact, some of the coolest temperatures we’ve seen since last May are on tap as they will only warm into the mid to upper 70s. the upslope clouds currently over the southern half of the valley will be slow in clearing today, possibly lasting into Friday morning over portions of southeast Tulare County and Kern County. I wouldn’t even rule out some drizzle near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
In another 24 hours, the trough will move into Montana and Utah, allowing a ridge of upper level high pressure to bulge in from the west. Already this morning, we have a north/northwest flow aloft which will turn north/northeast this weekend between high pressure off shore and lower pressure over the Rockies. Temperatures will begin to warm Friday, but will remain several degrees below average. More significant warming will occur over the weekend as warmest locations by Sunday afternoon will be around the 90 degree mark. I must emphasize, though, no truly hot weather is on the horizon at this time.
The next trough of low pressure to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest will clip northern California Sunday night and Monday. This will result in a brief, minor cooling trend. However, most model information depicts a large upper high building into California via the eastern Pacific by late Tuesday and lasting through Thursday of next week. About a week from now, some models are indicating a significant trough of low pressure will be over the western states again, so we’ll see if that pans out.
We also must mention the very active eastern Pacific tropical region. There are two storms and a hurricane, two of which will move northwestward. One of these will be just off the coast of north/central Baja by late Monday. However, that incoming trough will maintain a west or even southwest flow aloft, nudging the moisture from all this into mainly Arizona and New Mexico, though there is a chance of some juice spilling into extreme southeastern California.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today from Fresno County north. Mostly cloudy south of Fresno, slowly clearing during the late morning and afternoon hours. It’s possible southeast Tulare County and Kern County could see some cloud cover into Friday morning. Otherwise mostly clear Friday through Monday. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/48/82/52/88 | Reedley 78/49/83/53/88 | Dinuba 77/49/82/53/87 |
| Porterville 76/51/83/54/88 | Lindsay 77/50/82/53/89 | Delano 76/53/83/54/87 |
| Bakersfield 75/58/83/59/89 | Taft 78/55/83/61/89 | Arvin 75/55/83/57/90 |
| Lamont 76/56/83/58/90 | Pixley 77/53/83/53/88 | Tulare 77/49/83/53/87 |
| Woodlake 77/50/83/52/87 | Hanford 78/51/82/54/88 | Orosi 77/48/82/52/87 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/90 |
Two Week Outlook: September 25 through October 1: this time around, this model indicates above average temperatures will prevail. It is also indicating the chance for above average precipitation. Even though the risk factor is still fairly low, it’s higher on this projection than in the past, so stay tuned.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds through this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in Kings County and western Fresno County. Winds will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH by late tonight. Winds afternoons and evenings Friday through Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH, decreasing to 3 to 6 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: It’s possible some drizzle could occur near the base of the Kern County mountains through early Friday. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail not only through the weekend but through at least Thursday of next week. Some, but not all, models are depicting a significant low over the western states about next Friday or Saturday. currently, the ramifications, if any, are unknown, but for now I see no reason to add precipitation to the forecast.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: : Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity range September 18, 2019: Delano, 81%/28% Porterville, 83%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.38, Blackwell 1.49, Arvin 1.53, Orange Cove 1.49, Porterville 1.38, Delano 1.36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 75, Porterville NA, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 90/58
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1915 +404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 77.6 +2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.45. Month to Date: .00 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.39. Month to Date: .02 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 6:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 84 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.02 18.60 134 9.22 66 13.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 104 8.17 63 12.95 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 107 7.06 57 12.36 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 10.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 61 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 167 3.08 61 5.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.72 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.64 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.87 13.95
Next report: Friday, September 20