September 22, 2019
Summary:
The short term forecast through midweek is just a matter of temperature swings. Currently, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure is moving through. It will drive temperatures into the lower 90s at most locations this afternoon. To our north, a low is moving through the Pacific Northwest and it will dive into Nevada late this afternoon and tonight. A dry cold front will also move quickly through central California, marked by some high clouds and some increase in winds tonight and Monday.
A stronger ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as readings shoot up into the upper 90s, possibly teasing with the century mark in the hottest locations.
A radical change will begin Thursday as a strong low pressure system, especially considering the time of year, moves in to the Pacific Northwest with a trough digging almost down into southern California Thursday and Thursday night. a cold front will move down the valley late Thursday afternoon, accompanied by gusty winds and increased cloud cover. Much cooler weather will greet us Thursday. It’s possible as the main trough stretches from Montana to southern California Friday that temperatures may not even reach 70 degrees. The main concern, of course, this time of year is rain. Compared to yesterday, the chance appears to be increasing on projections with a likelihood of showers over the Sierra Nevada along with snow down to 7,000 feet. Models do show a very unstable air mass Friday through Saturday for a legitimate chance of scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. This far out, it would be tough to estimate possible rainfall totals. For now, it looks like they could range from nothing to upwards of .33 if thunderstorms break out.
Low pressure will remain in place from the northern Rockies through southern California through Tuesday, so a slight chance of showers needs to be included in the forecast for Sunday through Tuesday, as well. Finally, a week from Wednesday, upper level high pressure should begin to build in from the west, nudging the storm eastward and ending the precipitation threat.
Forecast: mostly clear today. Partly cloudy tonight through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Thursday. Variable cloudiness Thursday night through Saturday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue Saturday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures: Highs today will range in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 50s north of Kern County to the mid 60s in portions of Kern County. Highs Monday will drop back into the upper 80s. lows Monday night will range from the mid 50s north of Kern County to the upper 50s to mid 60s in Kern County. Highs Tuesday will zoom right back up into the lower 90s.
Next report: Monday, September 23