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Forecast

September 23, 2019/report

September 23, 2019

Summary: A low pressure system is centered just to the east of the southern Sierra Nevada at this hour and is moving rapidly towards the south.  There is a chance of a few showers over the southern Sierra Nevada today, but the only real ramification for the valley floor will be somewhat cooler afternoon highs today.  By tonight, this low will have  moved into southeast California and will center over northern Baja and Sonora, Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday.  the counterclockwise circulation is projected to pick up late season monsoonal moisture and rotate it into southern California Tuesday night and Wednesday.  winds aloft over central California will be out of the northeast, keeping any of the moisture to our south, although a limited amount could come as far north as the Kern County mountains Wednesday.

 

Upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the west Tuesday through Thursday, returning summer conditions to the valley.  Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week.  Warmest locations on the valley floor could tease with the century mark.

 

A trough of low pressure will stretch from the Pacific Northwest Thursday night and Friday, down into northern California.  The latest models are not as bullish on the chance of measurable rain for the valley floor.  If it occurs at all, it looks like Friday night through Sunday would be the time of greatest risk.  If models continue to show a drier forecast, it’s possible most of the precip could be confined to the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains.

 

Summer officially ended at 12:57 this morning.  Weather-wise, it will end Friday through the weekend and into next week as temperatures fall to well below average.  Sunday and Monday will be the coolest days.  Readings may not reach the 80 degree mark.

 

By a week from this coming Wednesday, most models are now indicating upper level high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, resulting in the next warming trend with dry weather.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night.  partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler Friday.  Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday with a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 87/57/95/60/98 Reedley 88/57/94/61/98 Dinuba 86/56/93/60/97
Porterville 89/57/95/60/99 Lindsay 88/56/94/60/98 Delano 90/62/95/64/99
Bakersfield 89/64/95/67/100 Taft 89/68/94/71/99 Arvin 90/61/95/66/100
Lamont 90/62/94/65/100 Pixley 89/57/95/61/98 Tulare 87/57/94/60/97
Woodlake 88/56/94/59/97 Hanford 88/58/95/61/98 Orosi 88/56/93/60/97

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

62/94

Friday

PM showers possible

56/83

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

54/80

Sunday

Slight chance of showers

52/78

Monday

Partly cloudy

47/81

 

Two Week Outlook: September 9 through October 5: This model shows an active weather pattern over the western United States.  Precipitation cannot be ruled out during this period as a big area of low pressure may affect the western U.S.  Temperatures would range below seasonal averages.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through this evening with local gusts to 20 MPH.  Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue through Friday morning.  Models this morning are considerably less bullish on the chance of measurable rain for the valley floor.  I am certainly not ready to rule out the chance of mainly light showers with the main threat being from Fresno County north.  Models are indicating the strongest dynamics of this system will be north of central California.  Since this is just a one day flip flop on  modeling information, it is still very wise to monitor the latest forecasts as they could flip back a potentially wetter forecast.  For now, though, we’ll keep the chance of measurable rain at any given location low.  If there is any precipitation, it appears it would  be widely scattered.

 

Dry weather will return by Sunday night and continue for at least several days thereafter.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: : Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/60%

Actual Humidity range September 22, 2019: Delano, 81%/23% Porterville, 89%/19%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.39, Parlier 1.27, Blackwell Corner 1.30, Arvin 1.35, Orange Cove 1.38, Porterville 1.26, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 72, Blackwell 83, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 82, Delano 70

Record Temperatures: 105/47. Average Temperatures: 89/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1936 +397

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 76.2 +1.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.42.  Month to Date: .00 -.10

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.82, or +1.38.  Month to Date: .02 -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:48 am  Sunset: 6:53 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:08

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  92 /  54 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  93 /  61 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  94 /  52 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  93 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  91 /  61 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  92 /  55 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  90 /  65 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.60   133    9.22    66    13.94    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.47   104    8.17    63    13.00    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   107    7.06    57    12.41    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    96    7.22    61    11.93    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   104    6.73    59    11.43    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    95    4.70    47    10.04    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   121    3.95    61     6.44     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.48   166    3.08    60     5.10     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.89   109    7.16    56    12.76    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   117    9.62    76    12.68    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   113    6.01    43    13.89    13.95

Next report:  Tuesday, September 24