September 27, 2019
Summary: Infrared satellite imagery depicts very well the first phase of a major pattern change currently underway. Low clouds and fog have made it all the way to the last range of mountains separating the San Joaquin Valley from the coast. I wouldn’t be surprised if folks driving along Interstate 5 could see the coastal stratus trying to sneak through some of those gaps and passes. Low clouds have also spread all the way up the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. Fog has reached the top of the Grapevine. Obviously, the marine layer is now more than 4,000 feet deep and is flooding the Central Valley. The result will be much cooler weather today.
The parent low pressure system will move into Washington State this evening. Its associated dry cold front currently has made it through the northern ¼ of California and will move through the San Joaquin Valley late tonight and early Saturday. light showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada with light snow over the higher elevations. Expect rapidly increasing cloud cover later tonight and Saturday as a strong westerly flow aloft generates upslope clouds against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.
The chance of measurable rain on the valley floor remains very low. Still, even though this system is moisture starved, there is fairly strong upper air dynamics which could conceivably wring out light showers or sprinkles Saturday through Sunday night, especially along the Sierra Nevada foothills. For now, it appears what precipitation does fall will be north of Kern County and mainly along the east side. Look for winds to increase out of the northwest today with periods of gusty winds tonight and at times through Sunday night. temperatures will fall by at least 10 degrees today, if not more, and another 6 to 10 degrees Saturday. readings will only be in the mid to upper 70s. the coldest air aloft associated with the low will be overhead Sunday and Monday when temperatures will have to struggle to hit 70 degrees. If cloud cover is consistent enough, readings could end up in the upper 60s.
The low itself will park over eastern Oregon Saturday through Monday then will finally begin to pull off towards the northeast Tuesday for the beginning of a slow warming trend. A weak trough of low pressure will remain along the west coast for much of next week for dry conditions and fairly moderate temperatures as we move into early October.
Forecast: Clear skies through late this evening. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Monday night. we’ll keep a small chance of sprinkles or light showers in the forecast for Saturday through Sunday night. partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/54/76/44/69 | Reedley 84/55/77/44/70 | Dinuba 83/53/75/43/70 |
| Porterville 84/54/78/44/71 | Lindsay 83/53/76/44/69 | Delano 85/57/78/45/71 |
| Bakersfield 86/61/78/50/71 | Taft 83/65/78/55/70 | Arvin 86/57/78/49/71 |
| Lamont 84/58/78/48/72 | Pixley 84/55/78/44/70 | Tulare 83/53/77/43/69 |
| Woodlake 83/54/77/43/70 | Hanford 83/55/77/44/70 | Orosi 84/54/77/43/70 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Variable clouds 42/71 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 42/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 3 through October 9: This model is indicating a fairly active pattern will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere. Temperatures should be near average. The chance for rain continues to be quite low.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will increase as the day wears on to 15 to 25 MPH at times. Gusts to 35 MPH are possible, mainly in Kings and Madera Counties and western Fresno County. Tonight and Saturday, winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts in excess of 30 MPH possible. Winds Saturday night through Monday will periodically be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Clouds will begin to increase later tonight as the leading edge of this trough moves through in the form of a cold front. Behind the front, much colder and unstable air will move in aloft for a chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada with snow above 5,000 to 6,000 feet. I want to keep a low chance of sprinkles or light showers in the forecast north of Kern County and mainly along the east side of the valley, especially near the Sierra Nevada foothills, through Sunday night. for now, it appears most locations will remain dry. If precipitation does occur, no more than a few hundredths is likely with a slight chance of isolated locations near the base of the Sierra recording upwards to a tenth of an inch. Dry weather will prevail Monday, continuing all of next week.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: : Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/85%
Actual Humidity range September 26, 2019: Delano, 74%/24% Porterville, 70%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.42, Parlier 1.27, Blackwell Corner 1.41, Arvin 1.46, Orange Cove 1.40, Porterville 1.32, Delano 1.28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 73, Blackwell 83, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 82, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 88/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1986 +421
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 76.4 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.39. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.37. Month to Date: .02 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 6:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 95 / 74 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 133 9.22 66 14.00 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 103 8.17 63 13.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 107 7.06 57 12.45 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 95 7.22 60 11.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 103 6.73 59 11.46 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 94 4.70 47 10.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 121 3.95 61 6.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 165 3.08 60 5.13 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 117 9.62 76 12.73 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.92 13.95
Next report: Saturday, September 28