October 11, 2019
Summary: At the surface, there is still a steep difference in pressure between the interior west and off shore central and southern California. At last report, Salt Lake City was reporting a pressure of 30.43 inches of mercury while LAX was reporting 29.98. Obviously, a strong off shore flow continues which affects other parts of California with strong, gusty, off shore winds. Effects in the valley are typically fairly minor. The main impact is mixing in drier air to the valley floor where dew points are down into the mid 20s to mid 30s north of Kern County and in the mid teens to the mid 20s in Kern County. The dry air mass will allow chilly overnight lows, but will also allow temperatures to warm nicely in the afternoons. Low to mid 80s will prevail through the weekend even though the off shore flow will weaken some this afternoon and end altogether by early Saturday.
At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure now covers the eastern Pacific and California. It’s not a particularly strong high, so no excessively warm temperatures are in the forecast for the foreseeable future.
The next trough of low pressure to move out of the Gulf of Alaska is a weak one. It will move through the Pacific Northwest, northern, and central California Sunday and Sunday night. it will be marked only by some high clouds and a minor cooling trend early next week.
Next week will generally be governed by a flat zone of upper level high pressure off shore which will extend inland through California while the main storm track will run west to east into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern generally results in seasonal temperatures with no chance of rain for at least the next week and possibly the next 10 days.
Forecast: Mostly clear today with some high clouds at times, mainly this morning. Mostly clear tonight through Monday. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/41/82/42/82 | Reedley 82/42/82/43/82 | Dinuba 80/40/81/42/81 |
| Porterville 81/41/82/42/83 | Lindsay 80/40/82/42/82 | Delano 81/43/82/43/83 |
| Bakersfield 82/48/82/51/83 | Taft 80/52/82/53/83 | Arvin 82/46/82/45/84 |
| Lamont 81/45/82/46/83 | Pixley 81/42/82/43/83 | Tulare 80/40/81/43/81 |
| Woodlake 80/39/82/41/82 | Hanford 81/43/82/44/83 | Orosi 80/40/82/42/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 44/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 43/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/83 |
Friday
Mostly clear 47/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 18 through October 24: This model shows the possibility of a significant low developing over the western states, resulting in temperatures dropping to near average. It’s much too early to tell, but this far out the chance of precipitation looks to be somewhat elevated.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours through Monday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: : Mid to upper teens. Humidity values ranging from 15%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/35%
Actual Humidity range October 10, 2019: Delano, 75%/18% Porterville, 83%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.27, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell Corner 1.19, Arvin 1.21, Orange Cove 1.17, Porterville 1.06, Delano 1.06. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 66, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 75, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 97/38. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1016 +390
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 64.4 -3.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.12. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.05. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03am Sunset: 6:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 77 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1645 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 77 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 853 0.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 7 0.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.11 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.10 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 83 0.12 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 67 0.06 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 444 0.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 515 0.13 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 23 0.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 318 0.11 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 12