October 12, 2019
Summary: At the upper levels of the atmosphere, weak upper level high pressure has taken over. The robust off shore flow at the surface the past few days is almost over as pressure differences between the Great Basin and off shore California begin to equalize. The freezing level over Vandenberg taken overnight was 12,700 feet while the marine layer along the coast at Monterey was just 800 feet.
With weak high pressure aloft, temperatures will warm to near seasonal values during the afternoon through Sunday. The off shore flow has mixed dry air down to the valley floor with dew points generally in the 30s north of Kern County and in the 20s in Kern County itself. This creates a wide spread between daytime highs and overnight lows. The temperature at McFarland was 36 degrees at 6:00am while at Rio Bravo the temp was 33. Weak downslope winds in Kern County kept the temperature at 54 at Edison.
The next trough of low pressure will weakly move through Sunday and Sunday night for a minor cooling trend which will result in readings back into the upper 70s Monday. That will be short lived, however, as the next ridge of high pressure will move in from the eastern Pacific. It, too, is pretty weak so temperatures during the afternoons will be just marginally above average.
Models are still pointing towards the formation of a significant low over the interior west from the 19th through the 20th. For now, this looks to be a dry pattern, but it should turn the winds aloft out of the north and should create a strong off shore flow for a cooling trend beginning Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Readings will once again fall below average.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Mostly clear tonight and Sunday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/41/82/43/77 | Reedley 82/41/83/42/78 | Dinuba 80/40/82/42/77 |
| Porterville 82/41/83/43/78 | Lindsay 81/40/82/42/78 | Delano 82/43/83/45/79 |
| Bakersfield 83/52/83/53/78 | Taft 81/54/83/54/79 | Arvin 83/45/83/46/79 |
| Lamont 83/47/83/47/79 | Pixley 82/42/83/43/78 | Tulare 81/41/82/43/77 |
| Woodlake 81/41/82/43/78 | Hanford 82/42/82/44/79 | Orosi 81/40/82/42/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 44/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 49/77 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/77 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 41/72 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: This model is indicating a low pressure system will affect the western U.S. during this period. So far, it appears any precipitation will remain to our north, however, look for temperatures to be somewhat below average.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours through Tuesday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: : Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/40%
Actual Humidity range October 11, 2019: Delano, 78%/18% Porterville, 90%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.24, Parlier 1.07, Blackwell Corner 1.20, Arvin 1.25, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville 1.06, Delano 1.06. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 67, Blackwell 76, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 75, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 95/39. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2016 +388
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 64.1 -3.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.13. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.06. Month to Date: .00 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 Sunset: 6:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 753 0.17 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 6 0.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 77 0.13 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 57 0.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 400 0.10 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 479 0.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 21 0.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 292 0.12 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 14