October 18, 2019
Summary: The trough of low pressure and its associated dry cold front which moved through early yesterday has zipped eastward and is now moving into the Rocky Mountain region. The freezing level over Oakland overnight dropped down to 9,800 feet, roughly a 3,500 foot drop from the previous day. Behind the trough, a west/northwest flow aloft resides, maintaining cool conditions for this early in the season. Another dry cold front will move through central California Saturday followed by another weak trough. This time, it will put us under a northwest flow aloft, meaning temperatures will only top out in the low to mid 70s all weekend. Overnight lows will also be chilly as colder frost stations will dip into the mid 30s with widespread upper 30s and lower 40s tonight through Sunday night.
We should see some upslope clouds develop along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains Saturday, but otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail. On Sunday night and Monday, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to nose into California from the west, resulting in a significant warming trend. From Monday through Wednesday, California will be flanked on the eastern side of the high with readings shooting up into the low to mid 80s. some models place the high almost directly overhead Thursday through Saturday, meaning well above average temperatures for all of next week, possibly lasting into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Friday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/37/73/40/73 | Reedley 71/39/72/42/73 | Dinuba 70/37/72/43/72 |
| Porterville 71/39/73/43/73 | Lindsay 71/37/73/42/72 | Delano 72/40/73/45/73 |
| Bakersfield 71/47/72/50/71 | Taft 71/51/72/53/72 | Arvin 72/43/72/47/72 |
| Lamont 71/43/72/48/72 | Pixley 71/40/72/43/73 | Tulare 71/37/72/42/73 |
| Woodlake 71/38/72/43/73 | Hanford 72/40/73/45/73 | Orosi 71/37/73/42/73 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 44/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 49/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 49/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: This model shows most of the lower 48 with below average temperatures. The exception is California which will be under the influence of high pressure just off shore for above average temperatures. The chance of rain during this period is slim to none.
October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday. It’s possible winds along the Interstate 5 corridor may increase out of the northwest to 10 to 20 MPH Saturday through Saturday night with stronger gusts and light winds returning Sunday through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity range October 17, 2019: Delano, 81%/36% Porterville, 90%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.06, Parlier .94, Blackwell Corner 1.08, Arvin 1.15, Orange Cove 1.06, Porterville .94, Delano .97. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 65, Blackwell 74, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 72, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 79/49
Heating Degree Days this Season: 42 +7
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.7 -2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.25. Month to Date: .00 -.25
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.11. Month to Date: .00 -.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 6:17 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 75 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 77 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1706 / 74 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 74 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 71 / 58 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 400 0.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 3 0.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.27 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 40 0.25 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 25 0.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 267 0.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 268 0.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 12 0.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 159 0.22 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 19