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Forecast

October 22, 2019/report

October 22, 2019

Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the central coast this morning with the eastern side of this high covering California and much of Nevada.  The freezing level has jumped to 15,600 feet, which could be a summertime reading, and with a very weak off shore flow, the marine layer is very shallow with a depth of only 200 feet at Monterey.  You could almost throw a baseball that high.  The high will remain pretty much in place through Wednesday then will strengthen before building a ridge north/northeast into the Pacific Northwest and even as far north as British Columbia.  This will generate a north/northeast flow aloft which, when combined with building surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will result in a strong off shore flow.  The Santa Anas in southern California will really crank up with temperatures Thursday and Friday jumping into the mid to upper 80s on the valley floor.  It’s possible some hot spot out there could briefly touch the 90 degree mark Friday.

 

Over the weekend, the high is projected by models to retrograde, in other words, back up off shore.  This will allow a cold trough of low pressure to dig southward from Canada into the Rocky Mountain region.  Models this morning indicate this system will dive southward further east than earlier indicated, so even though temperatures will drop beginning Sunday, it won’t be quite as dramatic as earlier projected.  I do, though, look for temperatures to drop below seasonal values beginning Monday and lasting throughout much of next week.

 

Any precipitation from this change will remain well to our east.

 

Medium range models show a weaker version of high pressure setting up shop during the latter part of next week, continuing the dry weather regime.  For now, it appears likely this October will be completely dry.

 

Forecast: Clear skies with warm afternoons through Saturday.  mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 83/47/84/49/86 Reedley 84/48/84/49/86 Dinuba 82/46/83/48/85
Porterville 84/48/84/50/86 Lindsay 84/47/84/49/87 Delano 85/50/85/52/87
Bakersfield 86/56/86/57/88 Taft 85/58/85/59/87 Arvin 86/52/86/53/88
Lamont 85/52/84/54/88 Pixley 84/49/84/50/86 Tulare 83/48/84/49/85
Woodlake 83/49/83/50/85 Hanford 84/50/84/51/86 Orosi 83/47/84/49/86

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

51/88`

Saturday

Mostly clear

50/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

49/81

Monday

Mostly clear

46/78

Tuesday

Mostly clear

43/74

 

Two Week Outlook: October 28 through November 3:  This model shows a massive cold air outbreak over much of the lower 48 with California being on the western fringe of this air mass.  This is not a pattern that would be conducive for precipitation, but possibly well below average temperatures may occur.

 

October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California.  Central California comes into the “near average” category.  Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California.  As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.

 

October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting.  This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once  you get near the Oregon border.  So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.  It’s possible localized gusty winds could occur Thursday and Friday near the base of the Tehachapi mountains but a high wind event is not expected.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/70%

Actual Humidity range October 21, 2019: Delano, 87%/30% Porterville, 94%/31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier .81, Blackwell Corner .93, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .93, Porterville .83, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 63, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 62

Record Temperatures: 92/35. Average Temperatures: 77/48

Heating Degree Days this Season: 56 +7

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 63.3 -2.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.34.  Month to Date: .00 -.34

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.15.  Month to Date: .00 -.15

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:14  Sunset: 6:12 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:02

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  79 /  46 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  45 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  80 /  46 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  79 /  47 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  52 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  48 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /  58 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   298     0.43    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     3     0.38    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.36    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.39    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    29     0.34    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0    0.04    17     0.23    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.15     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   222     0.18     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67   203     0.33    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     9     0.33    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35   117     0.30    13.95

Next report:  Wednesday, October 23