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Forecast

October 23, 2019/report

October 23, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure remains anchored just off the northern California coast.  At the surface, a weak off shore flow prevails.  This will keep temperatures well above average.  On Thursday and Friday, the high will build a ridge into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia while a high center at the surface develops over the Great Basin.  At the upper levels of the atmosphere, the winds will become more north/northeast and northeast at the surface, creating a relatively strong off shore flow.  Strong, gusty, Santa Ana winds will buffet southern California.  It’s possible these winds could move downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor Thursday into Friday.  Areas of greatest risk will be along the foothills, but some gusty east to southeast winds are possible even as far north as Bakersfield.  As you might expect,  humidity values will plummet over the Kern County portion of the valley floor.  At the upper levels of the atmosphere, the high center will be right over northern California Friday, which should be the warmest day in this series.  It wouldn’t be a total shock to see warmest locations, especially in Kern County, approach the 90 degree mark.

 

A significant change will occur over the weekend as the high retrogrades westward over the eastern Pacific while a cold trough of low pressure digs into the interior western U.S.  Much cooler temperatures will arrive early next week with readings sliding back towards seasonal averages by Sunday with seasonal conditions for much of next week.

 

Most medium range models continue to show persistent upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. through the end of the month.  So, this neverending dry weather pattern will continue.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday.  mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday with a cooling trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 83/49/86/51/86 Reedley 84/49/86/51/86 Dinuba 82/48/85/50/85`
Porterville 84/48/86/51/87 Lindsay 84/47/85/50/86 Delano 84/52/86/52/86
Bakersfield 85/58/88/58/88 Taft 84/61/87/60/87 Arvin 85/53/87/53/89
Lamont 85/54/87/55/88 Pixley 84/50/86/51/86 Tulare 83/47/86/50/85
Woodlake 83/48/85/51/85 Hanford 84/51/86/52/86 Orosi 83/47/86/50/86

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

51/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

48/77

Monday

Mostly clear

43/76

Tuesday

Mostly clear

41/78

Wednesday

Mostly clear

41/77

 

Two Week Outlook: October 30 through November 5:  This model shows a massive cold air outbreak over much of the lower 48 with California being on the western fringe of this air mass.  This is not a pattern that would be conducive for precipitation, but possibly well below average temperatures may occur.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday north of a Kern County line.  From Thursday through Friday morning, it’s possible gusty Santa Ana winds in the 15 to 30 MPH range could slide down the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the valley floor for gusty east to southeast winds.  For now, it would appear the strongest gust would be about 35 MPH.  These winds, if they occur at all, should diminish by Friday evening.  By late Saturday afternoon, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/60%

Actual Humidity range October 22, 2019: Delano, 86%/33% Porterville, 94%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .98, Parlier .82, Blackwell Corner .92, Arvin .98, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .81, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 63, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 62

Record Temperatures: 90/35. Average Temperatures: 76/48

Heating Degree Days this Season: 56 +3

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 63.4 -1.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.36.  Month to Date: .00 -.36

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.16.  Month to Date: .00 -.16

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:15  Sunset: 6:11 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:00

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  83 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  84 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  48 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  86 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  82 /  53 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  83 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  83 /  52 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  83 /  52 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   278     0.46    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     3     0.40    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.39    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.42    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    28     0.36    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0    0.04    16     0.25    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.16     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   211     0.19     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67   191     0.35    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     9     0.35    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35   109     0.32    13.95

Next report:  Thursday, October 24