October 28, 2019
Summary: Temperatures as of the time of this writing are running 10 to 16 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Several locations throughout the citrus belt are in the 30s. the coldest I could find was 33 degrees at Rio Bravo. What a radical change from last week when temperatures were pushing 90. This week, readings will only run in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Currently, a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure along the Pacific coast is building a ridge all the way north/northeastward into the Yukon territory of Canada while a cold trough of low pressure covers the interior western U.S. and over the Rocky Mountain region. California essentially is sandwiched between these two features with a strong north to south flow aloft pumping in the rather chilly air mass. Not only is this air mass cool, but it’s also very dry. Dew points this afternoon north of Kern County will only range in the upper 20s to the low 30s while in Kern County, dew points will range only in the mid to upper 20s. this will allow strong radiational cooling with local frost becoming likely in river bottom and similar low spots over the next few nights.
By Wednesday, yet another reinforcing shot of cold, very dry air will follow another dry cold front down the valley, lowering dew points even more with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday. The high will begin to flatten out Wednesday night and Thursday over the northern flank and will shift eastward into California, allowing temperatures to warm somewhat Friday through Sunday. However, the very dry air mass will be locked in place with low dew points, so cold nights and pleasant afternoons will greet us as we move into November.
Medium range models beginning about the 6 or 7 of November show the high along the west coast trying to break down. None of the models really shows a strong signature for rain for central California, but at least this pattern change could be helpful at some point down the road.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday. Generally clear skies will continue Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/33/70/32/68 | Reedley 71/34/69/33/68 | Dinuba 69/34/68/32/68 |
| Porterville 71/34/69/33/68 | Lindsay 70/34/70/32/67 | Delano 71/38/69/36/68 |
| Bakersfield 71/42/69/41/67 | Taft 71/47/70/45/68 | Arvin 72/39/70/38/67 |
| Lamont 71/41/70/40/68 | Pixley 70/36/69/34/68 | Tulare 69/35/69/33/68 |
| Woodlake 70/34/69/32/67 | Hanford 71/36/69/34/67 | Orosi 70/35/69/31/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 32/72 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/76 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/77 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 36/74 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 4 through November 10: This model still indicates the chance of precipitation will be quite low, however it does show the high trying to break down which could allow precipitation into northern California. Temperatures during this time frame should not stray far from seasonal averages.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday morning. Winds late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible, mainly in western Fresno County and Kings County. Winds will become light and variable Wednesday night through Thursday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range October 27, 2019: Delano, 84%/24% Porterville, 91%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.02, Parlier .83, Blackwell Corner .95, Arvin 1.01, Orange Cove .94, Porterville .83, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 71, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 89/33. Average Temperatures: 74/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 63 -15
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.7 -0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.50. Month to Date: .00 -.50
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.23. Month to Date: .00 -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:19 Sunset: 6:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 70 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 67 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 200 0.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.54 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.59 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.63 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 20 0.50 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 11 0.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 160 0.25 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 146 0.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 6 0.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 76 0.46 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 29