October 29, 2019
Summary: Beginning tonight, the strongest off shore flow of the season to date will begin and it will continue into Thursday. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific with a ridge jutting northeastward into the Yukon Territory of Canada. An equally impressive trough of low pressure extends from Hudson Bay, Canada to the Great Basin. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, a north/northeast flow will develop tonight through Wednesday night. at the surface, very strong high pressure will take shape over the Great Basin behind a cold front moving through the interior west. Very strong Santa Ana winds will buffet many areas of southern California. It is certainly possible some of these winds could blow downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor later tonight through Wednesday night. these winds are always a roll of the dice to project, but the proper configuration appears to be developing. This may cause gusty strong east to southeast winds with winds possibly as strong as 40 MPH near the base of the mountains. They could even work their way as far north as roughly Oildale.
Dew points are already quite low on the valley floor and with a strong off shore flow, coupled with an extremely dry air mass, dew points will lower even more Wednesday and Thursday. If the Santa Anas develop over the Kern County portion of the valley floor, dew points south of the Kern County line could drop into single digits. North of Kern County, dew points in the low to mid 20s will be possible. Already this morning, low temperatures are uniformly in 30s throughout the citrus belt. With even drier air moving into the region, local frost is likely, especially Thursday and Friday mornings north of Kern County and in Kern County, when the winds die off. It’s possible coldest river bottom and like locations could dip down to 29 to 31 with widespread low to mid 30s Thursday and Friday mornings. Even tonight, a few locations could dip into the lower 30s.
By Thursday night and Friday, the off shore high will begin to shift eastward into the western one-third of the U.S., ending the strong off shore flow event. Temperatures over the weekend will rise into the mid 70s, fairly close to average this time of year. However, with a very dry air mass continuing on the valley floor, widespread 30s will continue right into the early part of next week.
Medium range models still do not show a pattern conducive for rain for central California. Some models do show a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere after November 7, but still show the storm track to our north.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday with cold nights. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/33/68/31/69 | Reedley 69/34/68/32/69 | Dinuba 68/33/67/31/68 |
| Porterville 70/33/68/32/68 | Lindsay 70/33/68/31/69 | Delano 70/36/68/34/70 |
| Bakersfield 71/48/68/37/70 | Taft 70/50/68/45/70 | Arvin 71/45/68/36/71 |
| Lamont 71/38/68/35/70 | Pixley 70/34/68/32/69 | Tulare 68/33/67/31/68 |
| Woodlake 69/34/68/32/69 | Hanford 70/34/68/32/68 | Orosi 69/33/68/31/69 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 32/74 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 35/77 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 38/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 5 through November 11: This model shows more of a zonal or westerly flow across the Pacific and into north America. Unfortunately, the storm track remains to our north, so the chance of precipitation will remain low. Temperatures will run at least marginally above seasonal averages.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: North of Kern County, winds will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday. Wind conditions will become quite tricky later tonight through Wednesday night over the valley portion of Kern County. A very strong Santa Ana wind configuration is setting up and it’s entirely possible these winds could make it all the way down to the valley floor. Winds gusting in excess of 40 MPH are possible out of the east or southeast, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. These winds may make it as far north as roughly Oildale with winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range in the Bakersfield area. Winds will subside Wednesday night with light winds returning Thursday and continuing through the weekend.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/35%
Actual Humidity range October 28, 2019: Delano, 90%/20% Porterville, 84%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier .81, Blackwell Corner .94, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .81, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 65, Blackwell 72, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 70, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 73/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 72 -12
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.4 -0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.53. Month to Date: .00 -.53
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.25. Month to Date: .00 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:20 Sunset: 6:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 69 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 200 0.64 14.06
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 188 0.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 19 0.53 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 10 0.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 154 0.26 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 137 0.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 6 0.52 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 71 0.49 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, October 30