November 1, 2019
Summary: In the broad picture, upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the US. Embedded within this high is a cut off low a few hundred miles west of San Diego. The counter clockwise circulation around this high has the winds aloft out of the east above central California. Even down as low as 3,000 to 4,000 feet, gusty east to southeast winds continue over the Kern County mountains where dew points are between 10 and 20 degrees below zero. Dew points have recovered somewhat throughout the valley, but remain quite low, especially south of the Tulare/Kern County line. This will set the stage for a large difference between daytime highs and overnight lows as, generally speaking, the drier the air, the greater its ability to rid itself of heat.
Models show the low moving into northern Baja by Monday, so the off shore flow will continue all the way through the weekend. All of next week will be governed by upper level high pressure just off shore which will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s, about 7 to 10 degrees above average. Keep in mind, average daytime highs are going down on average of every two to three days. The air mass will remain very dry, so overnight lows will continue to be chilly.
I keep looking at medium range models, hoping for a change in the blocking pattern, but for now there simply is none. The forecast, then, remains dry indefinitely.
Forecast: Clear skies through Monday. Clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/75/32/77 | Reedley 32/76/33/77 | Dinuba 30/74/32/76 | |
| Porterville 31/77/33/78 | Lindsay 30/75/32/77 | Delano 33/77/34/78 | |
| Bakersfield 38/78/43/78 | Taft 43/77/47/78 | Arvin 32/78/34/79 | |
| Lamont 35/78/38/78 | Pixley 31/76/33/77 | Tulare 30/75/32/77 | |
| Woodlake 31/75/33/77 | Hanford 32/76/34/78 | Orosi 30/76/33/77 | |
Winds: Winds will continue to be at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: The ongoing off shore flow continues to play havoc with dew points. Dew points in Tulare County, at least in most locations, have risen into the upper 20s to the mid 30s, however Ducor as of 1:00pm was reporting a dew point of just 17. In Kern County, dew points were running in the teens. Temperature forecasting will be tricky at best but generally speaking a number of locations will dip at or below freezing tonight. The off shore flow may add enough mixing in Kern County to keep some locations above freezing. However, with the extremely dry air, upper 20s and lower 30s will also be possible in Kern County. Generally, the coldest overnight lows tonight will range from 28 to 31 in the coldest river bottom and like locations with another round of low to mid 30s in near flat topography with above freezing conditions along the hillsides.
Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, coldest locations will have the potential to be at or slightly below freezing in coldest locales. Some moderation will take place after Monday due to the fact daytime highs will be rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Even so, readings will dip into the 30s with the possibility of coldest locations teasing with the 32 degree mark. The good news is, for now there is no pattern showing up that would be conducive for a cold weather outbreak for California. The bad news is, the same pattern will mean dry weather can be expected indefinitely.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Saturday morning/November 2