November 1, 2019
Summary: We start out frost season with widespread frost on the ground. Dew points remain exceedingly low due to lack of rain for months and a continuing off shore flow. The current barometric pressure over Salt Lake City is 30.37 inches of mercury while LAX is reporting 30.07. With barometers remaining lower off the southern California coast, the flow will remain off shore though it will weaken over the next few days. Beginning today, daytime highs will begin to moderate as upper level high pressure off shore bulges inland into the western one-fourth of the U.S., creating a dry, northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight lows, however, will remain chilly due to low dew points and strong radiational cooling. Embedded within the high is a cut off low off the southern California coast. The only way you would even know it’s there is by water vapor satellite imagery. This feature will have no impact on our weather.
Medium range models just do not give much hope for precipitation for the first week in November. Even models going out through the 15th continue to show the storm track remaining too far to the north to impact central California.
Forecast: Clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/31/75/35/75 | Reedley 72/32/75/34/76 | Dinuba 71/30/74/33/75 |
| Porterville 73/32/75/34/77 | Lindsay 73/31/75/34/76 | Delano 73/34/75/36/77 |
| Bakersfield 73/40/77/44/78 | Taft 74/45/77/46/77 | Arvin 74/35/77/39/77 |
| Lamont 73/36/77/37/77 | Pixley 73/32/75/34/76 | Tulare 71/31/74/33/74 |
| Woodlake 72/30/75/33/76 | Hanford 73/33/75/35/75 | Orosi 72/30/75/33/75 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 36/77 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/75 |
Friday
Mostly clear 40/75 |
Two Week Outlook: November 8 through November 14: This model shows more of a zonal or westerly flow across the Pacific and into north America. Unfortunately, the storm track remains to our north, so the chance of precipitation will remain low. Temperatures will run at least marginally above seasonal averages.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Frost is widespread on this first official day of frost season. Some of the coldest locations are as follows: both Rio Bravo and Ivanhoe chilled down to 28, Navalencia and McFarland bottomed out at 29, one of the Maricopa stations was at 30. Many other locations chilled into the low 30s to 34 degree range.
Even though the air mass will slowly moderate over the next few days, the ongoing off shore flow will maintain very low dew points, allowing for strong radiational cooling. Coldest overnight lows tonight will range between 28 and 31 with most locations between 31 and 36 degrees. Hillsides will remain above freezing.
Fewer locations will be at or below freezing Saturday morning as dew points try to struggle upwards and daytime highs reach into the mid to upper 70s. For Monday and the first few days of next week, readings will chill into the 30s at most locations with only the colder river bottom and like locations teasing with the freezing mark. Fortunately, medium range models do not indicate a pattern which would be conducive for critically low temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern: Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range October 31, 2019: Delano, 78%/15% Porterville, 87%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .94, Parlier .76, Blackwell Corner .94, Arvin 1.11, Orange Cove .87, Porterville .77, Delano .76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 62, Blackwell 70, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 68, Delano 60
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 111 +6
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 62.3 -1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.63. Month to Date: .00 -.63
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.30. Month to Date: .00 -.30
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:23 Sunset: 6:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 72 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 68 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 156 0.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 0.68 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.81 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 16 0.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 8 0.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.30 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 133 0.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 116 0.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.62 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 58 0.60 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 1