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Forecast

November 7, 2019/report

November 7, 2019

Summary: Yet another carbon copy day is on tap.  The only subtle difference this morning is the fact the surface flow is actually a bit on shore for a chance.  The depth of the marine layer at Monterey is 1,600 feet, which is still quite shallow.  The freezing level remains unchanged at 13,000 over Oakland and Vandenberg.

 

The basic weather pattern is very similar to what we’ve seen the past few weeks.  A ridge of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean with a ridge northeastward into the Pacific Northwest.  There will be somewhat of a change coming up Friday and Saturday as a trough of low pressure jets through the Great Basin  followed by a surface high late Friday and through the weekend.  This will generate yet another off shore flow.  Currently, it appears doubtful whether or not these off shore winds will affect dew points over the valley floor or winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor.  By early next week, a ridge will build further north along the Pacific coast, generating a north/south flow aloft.  By the time we get into the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, it’s possible the northern flank of the high could break down, which would allow some cloud cover in central California.  Some  models are still very persistent in showing some kind of low pressure system moving through California around the 15th-16th which would theoretically result in showers for central California.  The unfortunate part of these same models is they indicate another ridge of blocking high pressure will develop along the west coast for possibly more dry weather.  We’ll just have to play the wait and see game.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Tuesday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 79/39/80/40/78 Reedley 80/40/81/41/78 Dinuba 78/37/79/39/77
Porterville 81/39/81/40/79 Lindsay 80/38/81/39/79 Delano 81/41/81/42/79
Bakersfield 82/50/82/51/80 Taft 80/55/81/55/78 Arvin 82/44/82/45/81
Lamont 82/43/82/43/80 Pixley 81/39/81/40/80 Tulare 79/38/80/39/77
Woodlake 79/39/80/39/77 Hanford 79/41/80/42/78 Orosi 79/37/80/39/77

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

40/79

Monday

Mostly clear

40/77

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

43/78

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

41/77

Thursday

Partly cloudy

42/75

 

Two Week Outlook: November 13 through November 19:  This model does not give much hope for precipitation through mid November.  Upper level high pressure will be dominant over the eastern Pacific and the western third of the U.S. for above average temperatures.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 20%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/65%

Actual Humidity range November 6, 2019: Delano, 74%/23% Porterville, 87%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corner .83, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .85, Porterville .71, Delano .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 57, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 56

Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days this Season: 153 -4

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 57.5-+0.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.82.  Month to Date: .00 -.19

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.41.  Month to Date: .00 -.11

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 36,  Parlier 53,  Arvin 37, Shafter 46, Stratford 40, Delano 46, Lindcove 45, Porterville 61,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:30  Sunset: 4:55 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  79 /  41 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  80 /  47 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  79 /  40 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  82 /  38 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  81 /  50 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  79 /  42 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /   M /  46 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  81 /  43 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  77 /  46 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28   113     1.13    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     1     0.92    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.09    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.15    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    12     0.82    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.04     5     0.78    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.41     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40   103     0.39     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67    85     0.79    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     4     0.82    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35    43     0.82    13.95

 Next report:  Thursday, November 7/pm