November 11, 2019
Summary: The freezing level is more reminiscent of September than November and stands at 14,100 feet. The marine layer is right at 1,000 feet, according to the latest soundings at Fort Ord and Monterey. A warm bubble of subsiding air remains over central California due to upper level high pressure located a few hundred miles to our west. The other main feature is a low located over north/central Baja which is creating a northeast flow above central and southern California. The high will continue to be the dominant feature through Wednesday, so warm, hazy afternoons will continue through Thursday. By Thursday, however, a weak trough of low pressure will be just off shore and will move inland late Thursday night and Friday with increased cloud cover. It will turn surface winds onshore for a change. The combination of weakening pressures aloft and that onshore flow will finally lower temperatures down into the upper 60s to lower 70s which, believe it or not, is still marginally above average for this point in November.
Unfortunately, this trough will not produce any precipitation as any dynamics will be well to our north. Upper level high pressure will bounce back Saturday and Sunday, warming temperatures possibly back into the mid 70s. It still appears Monday of next week will see the beginning of a new pattern as a fairly significant low will move into the Pacific Northwest, possibly spreading showers over northern California and possibly even over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Models still show this system moving inland more as an inside slider….the main impact will be over the Great Basin and eventually the Rocky Mountain region…with only the weaker portion of this storm moving over central California. For now, it appears measurable rain over the valley floor is unlikely. Behind this system, a zonal or westerly flow will set up across the Pacific with the storm track moving into the very dry Pacific Northwest. That region will finally pick up much needed rainfall, but it still appears the main track of Pacific storms will be too far to the north to benefit our region.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy through Wednesday. high clouds will begin to mix in later Tuesday through Wednesday. variable cloudiness at times Wednesday night through Friday night. mostly clear Saturday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night. mostly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/41/79/41/79 | Reedley 78/40/79/40/78 | Dinuba 77/39/78/40/78 |
| Porterville 78/41/79/41/78 | Lindsay 77/39/79/40/78 | Delano 79/43/79/44/78 |
| Bakersfield 79/52/80/52/80 | Taft 77/54/80/54/80 | Arvin 80/46/81/47/80 |
| Lamont 79/44/80/45/79 | Pixley 78/42/79/43/78 | Tulare 77/39/78/40/78 |
| Woodlake 77/39/79/40/78 | Hanford 78/43/79/43/78 | Orosi 77/39/79/40/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Variable clouds 45/77 |
Friday
Variable clouds 46/71 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 42/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 42/74 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 47/69 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: Upper level high pressure is still projected to be the main weather player over the eastern Pacific and western one-third of the lower 48, resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of rain will be slim to none.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: This week will again be dry. The next chance of rain is still not on the horizon, however there will be a shift in the pattern beginning a week from today which may spread showers into northern California and the Sierra Nevada. Unfortunately, models are showing this system to be an inside slider, or in other words it will move into the Great Basin. With that in mind, we’ll keep this forecast dry but watching for potential changes.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/65%
Actual Humidity range November 10, 2019: Delano, 86%/25% Porterville, 92%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .75, Parlier .69, Blackwell Corner .77, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .71, Delano .70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 58, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 67/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 171 -28
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.7- +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.96. Month to Date: .00 -.33
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.49. Month to Date: .00 -.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 46, Parlier 75, Arvin 45, Shafter 63, Stratford 52, Delano 62, Lindcove 55, Porterville 92,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 Sunset: 4:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 76 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 77 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 78 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 77 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 78 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 96 1.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 10 0.96 11.50
HANFORD M 0.00 0 0.04 4 0.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.49 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 89 0.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 71 0.94 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 0.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 35 0.99 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 11/pm