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Forecast

November 12, 2019/report

November 12, 2019

Summary: Warmest locations this afternoon will see lower 80s.  The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is just off the central California coast.  The freezing level is up another 1,000 feet, according to the latest sounding over Oakland and currently stands at 15,000 feet. This is more reminiscent of late summer than mid November.  There is also a weak off shore flow with a very shallow marine layer along the coast at just 600 feet at Monterey.

 

The other feature is an upper low which has drifted southward to central Baja.  The high will maintain itself through Wednesday with well above average temperatures continuing.  A weak trough of low pressure will be just off the northern and central California coast Thursday.  It will move inland Thursday night and Friday.  The only impact will be increased cloud cover and somewhat cooler temperatures.  However, readings will remain marginally above average.

 

A ridge of high pressure will build eastward into northern and central California Saturday through Sunday, nudging temperatures back up into the mid 70s.  in the meantime, a new low will develop off of northern Baja, creating another off shore flow.

 

Beginning Tuesday of next week, the pattern will become a bit more interesting.  A sharp low will stretch from western Canada to northern California.  This system will give a chance of showers to the Sierra Nevada, but for now it appears the valley will remain dry as the main energy moves into the Great Basin.  The combination of that developing low over the interior west and a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure extending from the eastern Pacific northward into Alaska will create a north/south flow which could bring colder temperatures to central California.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this pattern to try to discern how the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere set up.  For now, though, we’ll just keep a close eye on it.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today and tonight.  Variable cloudiness at times Wednesday through Friday evening.  Mostly clear later Friday night through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 79/41/77/43/73 Reedley 80/42/78/42/74 Dinuba 79/40/78/43/73
Porterville 80/41/78/44/74 Lindsay 80/40/78/44/75 Delano 81/44/78/46/74
Bakersfield 82/52/78/55/76 Taft 81/54/79/55/77 Arvin 82/46/80/48/78
Lamont 81/45/79/50/77 Pixley 81/41/78/45/74 Tulare 79/40/78/44/73
Woodlake 79/41/78/44/75 Hanford 81/43/78/47/75 Orosi 80/40/78/44/74

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly cloudy

49/71

Saturday

Mostly clear

43/70

Sunday

Mostly clear

41/76

Monday

Mostly clear

43/77

Tuesday

Increasing clouds

47/69

 

Two Week Outlook: November 19 through November 25:  Upper level high pressure is still projected to be the main weather player over the eastern Pacific and western one-third of the lower 48, resulting in above average temperatures.  The chance of rain will be slim to none.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost Discussion: For now, we’ll keep frost out of the forecast.  There is a potential pattern coming up around Tuesday the 19th through Thursday the 21st.  at least one model shows a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure along the Pacific coast with a ridge into southern Alaska and a fairly vigorous low over the interior west.  This would set up a north to south flow aloft from the Yukon Territory to California which could potentially bring a colder air mass to central California.  This is the first time this has really shown up so for now we’ll just mention it while keeping frost out of the forecast.  If a trend develops, though, we’ll take it more seriously.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/65%

Actual Humidity range November 11, 2019: Delano, 75%/29% Porterville, 91%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .68, Blackwell Corner .75, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .76, Porterville .71, Delano .69. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.  

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 57

Record Temperatures: 80/29. Average Temperatures: 67/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 175 -35

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 58.8- +3.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average:  

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.00  Month to Date: .00 -.37

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.51.  Month to Date: .00 -.21

Water year season is from October 1st through September. 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 49,  Parlier 80,  Arvin 47, Shafter 68, Stratford 56, Delano 66, Lindcove 58, Porterville 100,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:35  Sunset: 4:51 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:18

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  78 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  78 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  80 /  38 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  78 /  49 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  78 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  80 /  44 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  77 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28    91     1.40    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     1     1.12    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.30    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.35    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10    10     1.00    11.50

HANFORD                          M    0.00     0    0.04     4     0.98    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.51     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40    85     0.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67    68     0.98    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     3     0.99    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35    34     1.03    13.95

 Next report:  Tuesday, November 12/pm