November 13, 2019
We are going to start posting regularly on Facebook once again. Hope you share pictures of your workplace as well as from your homes and families with us.
Summary: Upper level high pressure is finally shifting eastward in response to a weak trough of low pressure off the west coast. That trough will move eastward through California Thursday through Thursday evening, causing variable amounts of cloud cover over the region. Thursday’s cooling will be primarily due to cloud cover, but as the trough moves inland, the flow at the surface will become onshore, spreading cooler maritime air into the valley. By late Friday night and Saturday morning, the southern portion of this trough will pinch off, forming a closed low off the southern California coast. It will drift well south to off the Baja coast over the weekend. This will allow the latest ridge of upper level high pressure to build in from the west for a return to warmer weather, especially Sunday and Monday when high temperatures will again approach the 80 degree mark, at least at the warmest locations.
A fundamental change will finally break the spine of the persistent high pressure with a series of storms possibly moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week. This far out, it’s hard to tell how far out the potential storm track could progress. For now, it would appear to be north of our region, but stay tuned. Keep in mind that other models are showing other configurations which would result in even more dry days.
Behind the Tuesday storm, the winds aloft will be briefly out of the north, wrapping around the back side of the low and spreading much cooler air into California. At this point, I don’t see a frost threat but it is a pattern that deserves study.
Forecast: Variable mid and high level clouds through Thursday evening. Clearing late Thursday night. becoming mostly clear and cooler Friday. Mostly clear and warmer Saturday through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers north of Fresno County Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/72/44/68 | Reedley 45/73/45/68 | Dinuba 44/72/44/67 | |
| Porterville 44/74/44/69 | Lindsay 43/73/42/68 | Delano 45/74/44/69 | |
| Bakersfield 53/75/51/68 | Taft 55/76/49/68 | Arvin 48/75/44/69 | |
| Lamont 50/76/47/69 | Pixley 46/73/45/68 | Tulare 44/72/43/67 | |
| Woodlake 43/73/43/67 | Hanford 44/73/44/67 | Orosi 43/73/44/67 | |
Winds: Winds will continue to be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: For the first time in seemingly months, I’m actually going to mention the word “rain” with our forecast. It appears a rather vigorous low will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday then into the Great Basin with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and a slight chance over the valley floor Tuesday night and Wednesday. there is some suggestion on the GFS model that a strong westerly component will develop across the Pacific Ocean, allowing several storms to move into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California. If this develops at all, and other models do not agree with this, the southern limit of the rain line would be the main forecast challenge. For now, we’ll just go with a slight chance of showers from Fresno northward for the middle part of next week. Let’s cross our fingers and hope the back can be broken of this endless stretch of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: Thursday morning/November 14