November 13, 2019
Summary: The high clouds moving in from the west are from an off shore trough of low pressure stretching from the Gulf of Alaska southward to off the central California coast. The ridge of high pressure which has resulted in such pleasant weather in recent weeks is finally shifting eastward. We will see one more day of near 80 degree temperatures then finally somewhat of a cooling trend will begin tomorrow as the trough moves on shore. The dynamics of this system over the lower latitudes is quite weak so just cloud cover and somewhat cooler temperatures will be the result.
As the back side of the trough moves inland Friday, the southern portion will form a closed low off the southern California coast. It will move southward to off the Baja coast over the weekend. This will allow the next zone of upper level high pressure to build eastward into California over the weekend for the next warming trend. Some models have warmest locations on the valley floor pushing 80 degrees by Sunday which would be near record territory. But, as we bask in record warmth, the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. continues to see low temperature records shattered.
The high will move eastward Monday night, allowing the next trough of low pressure to move inland Tuesday. This feature will also be very weak with the main energy moving into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The southern portion of this trough will move through central California Wednesday, resulting in cooler temperatures. By then, average temperatures will have fallen into the low to mid 60s.
Medium range models continue, in one way, shape, or form, to show a blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific with the storm track well to our north. The start to the west season for central California is not officially on the horizon as of yet.
Forecast: Variable mid and high level clouds through Thursday night. clearing by Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Monday night. becoming mostly cloudy and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/44/72/45/68 | Reedley 79/44/73/45/68 | Dinuba 77/43/72/44/67 |
| Porterville 79/44/74/44/67 | Lindsay 79/43/73/43/68 | Delano 79/46/73/45/69 |
| Bakersfield 81/55/75/52/68 | Taft 79/56/76/52/67 | Arvin 81/49/77/50/69 |
| Lamont 80/50/77/47/69 | Pixley 79/46/73/45/68 | Tulare 77/44/72/43/67 |
| Woodlake 78/43/72/42/68 | Hanford 78/45/74/44/68 | Orosi 79/42/73/41/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 41/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 42/77 |
Monday
Mostly clear 43/78 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 46/73 |
Wednesday
Variable clouds 45/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 20 through November 26: Upper level high pressure is still projected to be the main weather player over the eastern Pacific and western one-third of the lower 48, resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of rain will be slim to none.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/75%
Actual Humidity range November 12, 2019: Delano, 82%/28% Porterville, 90%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .72, Parlier .68, Blackwell Corner .73, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .71, Delano .69. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 83/28. Average Temperatures: 66/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 177 -45
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.1- +3.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.04 Month to Date: .00 -.41
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.53. Month to Date: .00 -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 51, Parlier 85, Arvin 49, Shafter 72, Stratford 59, Delano 66, Lindcove 60, Porterville 100,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 81 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 83 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 84 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 81 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 81 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 88 1.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.34 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 10 1.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 4 1.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.53 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 82 0.49 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 65 1.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 1.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 32 1.08 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, November 13/pm