November 14, 2019
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Summary: North of Kern County, temperatures are running anywhere from 4 to 7 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. In Kern County, readings are only 1 to 2 degrees cooler. From Merced northward, readings are only in the upper 60s this afternoon. An increasing onshore flow is pooling significant amounts of marine air down the valley in association with a trough of low pressure which has moved on shore and will be followed by a second wave which will move through late today and Friday morning. The southern portion of the trough will form a closed low off the northern Baja/southern California coast Friday night and Saturday while upper level high pressure begins to build in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in warmer weather, especially Sunday and Monday. In fact, mid to upper 70s appear likely from Sunday through Tuesday before a major change occurs Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
Models this afternoon still vary considerably. It does appear possible that the low off the Baja coast alluded to earlier may actually merge with a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. On paper, some of these models indicate the best chance of showers will be over the southern half of California, especially over the higher elevations. On the valley floor, the best chance of showers would appear to be in Kern County. Rainfall forecasting, especially a week out, is a very inexact science, to say the least, and the amount of measurable rain would appear to be no more than 20% to 30%. But just the chance we’re discussing rainfall at all is almost exciting.
The best chance of measurable rain would appear to be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A new high will develop over the eastern Pacific a week from tomorrow then will build inland into the Great Basin while the main storm track moves up into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through this evening. Mostly cloudy later tonight and Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear skies Friday night through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with a chance of light showers.
Winds: Winds will continue to be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. I want to keep a chance of light showers in the forecast for especially Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Even though there is still a considerable amount of differences between models, it does look like some kind of scenario will play out. A trough of low pressure is projected to dig southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. A closed low may be a second player, meandering off the northern Baja coastline. It may be tugged northeastward into southern California. If this whole mess comes together, the risk of showers will be greatest over the Sierra Nevada and much of southern California. The best chance of measurable rain would be in, believe it or not, Kern County, but I wouldn’t rule out showers anywhere in the 5 county area. Right now, I put the chance of measurable rain at about 20% to 30% or so. After Thursday, another ridge of high pressure will push in from the west, driving the storm track north of our region again for dry weather thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: Friday morning/November 15