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Forecast

November 15, 2019/report

November 15, 2019

Summary: A weak trough of low pressure and its associated dry cold front are currently moving through California.  All of the moisture with this system is in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, so just mid and high level clouds will move over during the morning hours.  The back side of this system will clear the valley by midday, allowing for clearing skies this afternoon.  A cooler air mass is spreading in behind the front.  It will lower temperatures to near seasonal values for a change with most locations in the mid 60s, about 7 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

 

The southern portion of the trough will pinch off, forming a closed low off the southern California coast tonight.  It will move southward off of Baja over the weekend and into next week.  High pressure several hundred miles off shore will build in from the west over the weekend for a continuation of dry weather and a warming trend.  Surface winds, which are currently on shore, will turn off shore during the weekend.  Weak downsloping off the mountains will aid in the warming trend with readings in the mid to upper 70s Monday through Tuesday.

 

On Tuesday, a low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest then into northern and central California Wednesday.  one  model places the center of circulation right over central California Wednesday afternoon.  The low is taking an overland trajectory so the moisture field around the storm will be limited.  Even so, a chance of light showers is there, especially over the mountains, but even on the valley floor.

 

By Thursday, the low will be centered somewhere near Las Vegas.  The circulation pattern around the storm will still be over central California under a northeast flow.  By Thursday, the greatest risk of showers will be the south valley, but especially southern California and into the Desert Southwest.  By Friday, some models place the low’s center over the Four Corners region, allowing upper level high pressure to move in from the west next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning with patchy fog early.  Becoming mostly clear this afternoon through Tuesday with patchy night and early morning fog.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night.  mostly cloudy Wednesday with a chance of light showers.   Mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of light showers, mainly in the south valley.  Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/39/69/38/74 Reedley 65/39/69/39/75 Dinuba 64/38/68/38/73
Porterville 66/39/70/37/75 Lindsay 65/37/69/37/75 Delano 66/41/69/40/75
Bakersfield 64/47/69/48/76 Taft 65/50/70/52/77 Arvin 65/44/70/42/77
Lamont 66/44/71/45/77 Pixley 66/39/69/40/75 Tulare 64/38/69/38/73
Woodlake 65/39/69/38/74 Hanford 65/40/70/40/75 Orosi 65/37/69/37/73

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

42/76

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

44/73

Wednesday

Chance of showers

49/61

Thursday

Chance of showers

43/62

Friday

Partly cloudy

40/63

 

Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28:  This model actually shows a chance of above average precipitation over the southern  half of California and especially the Desert Southwest with below average rainfall over the northern half of the state.  Projected temperatures on this model are marginally above average.

 

November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California.  This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.

 

December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S.  This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

 

Winds:  Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH today.  Winds tonight through Monday will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night, at least.  There is now a definite trend on models indicating at least a small chance of light showers exists for Wednesday through Thursday evening.  On Wednesday, a low center is projected by some models to be right over central California.  This storm, on paper anyway, will drop southward over land, so the moisture field circulating around the system will be fairly limited.  Light precipitation will be likely  over the Sierra Nevada with light snow over the higher elevations.  There will be a chance of light showers over the valley floor.  The chance of rain Wednesday at any given location will be around 30% to 40%.  By Thursday morning, the center of circulation may be somewhere near southern Nevada.  This would still have central California underneath its counterclockwise circulation.  The best chance for light showers Thursday will be over southern California with the greatest possibility of showers on the valley floor being in Kern County.  By Thursday night, the low should be far enough to the east to take showers out of the forecast with dry weather Friday through next weekend and quite possibly well beyond.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 70%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 70%/100%

Actual Humidity range November 14, 2019: Delano, 88%/40% Porterville, 90%/31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .65, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corner .72, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .66, Delano .64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 58

Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 184 -63

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 59.4- +4.4

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.11  Month to Date: .00 -.48

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.00, or -.57.  Month to Date: .00 -.27

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 53,  Parlier 130,  Arvin 58, Shafter 73, Stratford 71, Delano 73, Lindcove 65, Porterville 114,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:38  Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:13

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  72 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  75 /  52 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  74 /  47 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  72 /  49 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  75 /  52 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  73 /  46 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  76 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  75 /  50 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  77 /  58 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  68 /  51 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.28    82     1.56    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.01     1     1.25    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.41    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     1.46    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.10     9     1.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.04     4     1.08    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.57     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.40    77     0.52     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.67    60     1.12    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.03     3     1.09    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.35    30     1.16    13.95

 

 Next report:  Friday, November 15/pm