November 16, 2019
Summary: The low clouds in Kern County and the patchy fog elsewhere have vacated central California for clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures as of 1:00pm are up 1 to 3 degrees from yesterday at this time. A strong ridge of upper level high pressure will build further east into northern and central California Sunday through Monday for significant warming. In fact, temperatures on Monday may tease with the 80 degree mark, which is around record territory for this late in the season. A major cooling trend is on the way beginning Tuesday. A fairly strong low center will develop over the Pacific Northwest Monday then will dig rapidly southward into northern and central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. a couple of models place the center of circulation almost right overhead Wednesday morning. Showers will become likely over the Sierra Nevada as early as Tuesday night with a chance of light showers over the valley floor Wednesday through Thursday. If there are enough breaks in the overcast Wednesday afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Generally speaking, however, the precipitation on the valley floor will likely be spotty and light.
By Thursday, the low will be either near southern Nevada or by northwest Arizona, putting the valley on the northern rim of the counterclockwise circulation of the storm. A reverse rain shadow will likely occur, as well. Showers will develop over the Sierra but will likely dissipate as the air moves downslope. Even so, a chance of showers is likely, especially in Kern County. The chance of showers will begin to diminish Thursday night and by Friday morning the storm will be over the Four Corners region. Upper level high pressure off shore will quickly take its place Friday for what promises to be the beginning of a multi-day dry regime.
Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will struggle to reach 60 degrees which, if it occurs, will be the first time in several weeks readings have dipped below average. For now, it appears dew points will remain high, so no frost is in the forecast.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday night with a chance of scattered light showers late Tuesday night through Wednesday with a slight chance on Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 38/74/41/78 | Reedley 39/74/41/77 | Dinuba 38/73/40/76 | |
Porterville 41/75/42/79 | Lindsay 39/75/41/78 | Delano 42/75/44/79 | |
Bakersfield 46/76/51/80 | Taft 51/74/53/79 | Arvin 43/75/46/81 | |
Lamont 44/77/47/80 | Pixley 40/74/42/78 | Tulare 39/73/41/77 | |
Woodlake 39/73/41/77 | Hanford 40/75/42/78 | Orosi 39/73/41/77 |
Winds: Winds will continue to be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Models this afternoon are falling right in line rather nicely on the chance for scattered light showers for the valley and the likelihood of showers for the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains beginning Tuesday night. The risk of showers will continue through Thursday. This will be a complex storm system as it will develop a circulation pattern right over central California Wednesday morning and pulls a closed low off of Baja northeastward into southern California and Arizona. The sector of the storm over central California will be somewhat starved for moisture. Models are still indicating the possibility of about .25 over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and a few inches of snow up high. It still appears the precipitation pattern for the valley floor will be spotty with amounts ranging from a trace to upwards of .10 to .15. models are borderline on the possibility of isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor Wednesday afternoon. If any storms do appear, isolated pockets could record well over .25”. the chance of showers will diminish late Thursday and Thursday night with dry weather returning Friday through next weekend and, more than likely, well beyond.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.