November 16, 2019
Summary: Skies have cleared out over most of the valley this morning. The exception is a bank of low, upslope clouds which are banked up against the Tehachapi Mountains. The tops of this cloud deck are at around 4,000 feet. I noted at last report Tehachapi was reporting dense fog.
We know have an off shore flow in place, although it’s fairly weak. It will, though, be enough to mix out whatever clouds are left by later this afternoon.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure is ridging into northern and central California over the top of a closed low located off the coast of northern Baja. This is creating a northeast flow between these two systems which will allow the off shore flow to continue through Monday, enhancing the warming trend. Mid to upper 70s are likely Sunday with an 80 degree reading or two possible by Monday when the high will reach its pinnacle.
The high will break down Monday night and Tuesday as a developing low drops southward from the Pacific Northwest into northern and central California by Tuesday afternoon. Most of the models this morning place the center of circulation over south/central California by Wednesday for the likelihood of showers over the Sierra Nevada. Some models are predicting as much as .25 of precipitation could fall over the higher elevations with a chance of light showers over the valley floor. Greatest potential for measurable rain still appears to be Kern County.
By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the low will be over southern California or possibly southern Nevada. This will keep light showers over southern California and the Sierra Nevada through Thursday. The valley will be in somewhat of a reverse rain shadow from the Sierra Nevada as the flow from the top of the storm moves in from the east. By midday Friday, the low will be centered somewhere near the Four Corners region, returning dry weather to central California as upper level high pressure again builds in from the west. Dry weather will prevail next weekend and well into the following week with marginally above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night. the low clouds in Kern County will mix out during the course of the day. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A slight chance of showers Tuesday night. a chance of scattered light showers Wednesday into early Thursday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/39/74/40/77 | Reedley 69/39/73/40/76 | Dinuba 68/37/74/39/77 |
| Porterville 69/40/75/41/78 | Lindsay 70/38/74/39/77 | Delano 70/42/75/43/79 |
| Bakersfield 69/48/76/50/79 | Taft 71/50/77/52/80 | Arvin 68/44/76/46/81 |
| Lamont 69/44/77/46/80 | Pixley 69/39/74/41/78 | Tulare 68/38/73/40/76 |
| Woodlake 69/40/74/41/77 | Hanford 68/40/75/41/78 | Orosi 68/39/74/40/77 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM showers possible 49/73 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 49/62 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 40/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29: This model projects below average temperatures over roughly 80% of the lower 48. Almost the lone exception is California where temperatures will be marginally above average. This model continues to point to an above average chance of showers over the southern half of the state.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Tuesday.
Rain: We are still on track for a chance of light showers possibly as early as Tuesday evening with the greatest risk of measurable rain being late Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a slight chance Thursday, mainly in Kern County. Models still indicate a low rapidly developing over the Pacific Northwest will drop into central and southern California Tuesday night through Thursday. Showers appear likely over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, but the chance of measurable precipitation on the valley floor is still iffy at any given location but Kern County oddly has the greatest opportunity to pick up moisture. Just about all of southern California has a chance to pick up measurable rain as low will peak as it centers near southeast California Wednesday night and Thursday. Dry weather should return by Thursday afternoon and will continue through at least next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/85%
Actual Humidity range November 15, 2019: Delano, 92%/59% Porterville, 95%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .65, Parlier .60, Blackwell Corner .64, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .64, Porterville .62, Delano .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 81/27. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 191 -69
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.3- +4.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.14 Month to Date: .00 -.51
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.59. Month to Date: .00 -.29
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 54, Parlier 95, Arvin 49, Shafter 76, Stratford 60, Delano 77, Lindcove 64, Porterville 122,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1530 / 65 / 47 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 61 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 80 1.61 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 9 1.14 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 4 1.11 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.59 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 74 0.54 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 57 1.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 1.12 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 29 1.21 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 16/pm