November 20, 2019
Summary: At 1:00pm, Bakersfield was reporting light rain with a temperature of just 48 degrees, which is 24 degrees colder than 24 hours ago. Some locations in the valley portion of Kern County have received well over .50. I have some individual storm totals I’ll place in the rain discussion below.
Doppler radar continues to show widespread shower activity over the southeast corner of the valley while the remainder of the south valley is now clearing if it hasn’t cleared already. Doppler radar over southern California is light up like the proverbial Christmas tree with numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially from the LA basin down to San Diego.
The freezing level earlier today over Vandenberg was all the way down to 5,600 feet. Heavy snow has been falling over the Kern County mountains down to about 5,000 feet. Pine Mountain Club has reported 11 inches of snow as of noon. The center of circulation of this storm is now over western Riverside County and is moving east/northeast. The counterclockwise flow around the low has the winds aloft out of the northeast, continuing the reverse rain shadow over much of the valley.
By this evening, the entire valley will be dry with lingering showers in the Sierra Nevada from Tulare County southward into the Kern County mountains. By tomorrow morning, the storm will have moved into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona for the beginning of a dry period which will last through at least Tuesday night. a low is projected to develop off the central California coast Friday night then will drift southward, parking off of northern Baja for a few days. This has been a common occurrence this season.
The next major change in our weather will occur Monday and Tuesday as a cold low drops southeastward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region, creating a strong off shore circulation flow. This could inject drier air into the valley for possible colder temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with at least local frost possible. Some models are still insisting a significant winter storm will move into northern and central California Wednesday and Thursday of next week for the possibility of precipitation, especially over the mountains, and gusty winds. There may be some cold air behind this system, which we’ll discuss in the frost section below.
Forecast: Clearing tonight with the exception of Kern County which may stay partly to mostly cloudy well into Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of rain Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/64/35/65 | Reedley 37/64/36/64 | Dinuba 36/63/36/64 | |
| Porterville 37/65/36/66 | Lindsay 36/63/35/65 | Delano 40/64/39/65 | |
| Bakersfield 44/64/45/65 | Taft 46/63/46/65 | Arvin 47/63/41/66 | |
| Lamont 44/63/45/65 | Pixley 38/64/37/65 | Tulare 36/63/36/64 | |
| Woodlake 37/63/35/64 | Hanford 40/64/39/65 | Orosi 36/63/36/64 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the southeast through this evening at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly near showers in Kern County. Later tonight through Saturday, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Longer term, there is a small possibility of local gusty east to southeast winds over the valley portion of Kern County Monday through Tuesday. It’s too early to nail down a particular configuration, but at the very least we should see the development of a strong, off shore flow.
Rain: The following are rainfall totals from the current system as of noon today: Bakersfield .31, Mettler .64, Taft and Buttonwillow .31 each, Delano .34, just east of Jasmine .60.
The shower activity which has been mainly confined to Kern County all day will begin to shift off to the east this evening with the greatest risk of showers being over portions of Kern County, especially near the base of the mountains. By late this evening, this storm will be far enough to the east for a return to dry weather through the entire region. The .31 recorded at Bakersfield was almost average for the entire month of November and it was still raining as of last report. The central San Joaquin Valley missed out on the rain almost entirely.
Dry weather will prevail later tonight through at least next Tuesday night. some models are still insisting a major winter storm will affect northern and central California Tuesday and Wednesday with significant snow in the mountains and rain on the valley floor. My confidence level is a little higher on this as a definite trend is developing.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing each night through Sunday. A strong off shore flow will develop Monday and Tuesday from a developing storm over the eastern Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. This could inject a slightly cooler, but more importantly drier, air mass onto the valley floor, lowering dew points. The result would be a chance of local frost. The possibility of a major winter storm keeps showing up on paper for Wednesday and Thursday. As this system moves off to the east Thursday night and Friday, high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific and into northwest Canada. Models this afternoon don’t paint such an ominous picture, but the configuration would cause temperatures to drop into at least the upper 20s and lower 30s. For now, just something to be aware of.
Next report: Thursday morning/November 21