November 23, 2019
Summary: We are experiencing a seasonal morning this morning with most ag locations well down into the 30s. the exception is Kern County where readings are generally in the 40s. The air aloft continues to slowly warm with the freezing level at Vandenberg overnight inching up to 10,400 feet.
An upper low is situated off the southern California coast while a narrow ridge of high pressure runs over the top of the low into Oregon and northern California. This is generating an off shore flow for locally gusty easterly winds over the Kern County mountains.
Monday will be the beginning of a cold weather pattern which will begin in earnest on Tuesday and last all the way through Friday. A developing low over northwest Canada will slide right down the coast, centering off the Oregon coast by early Tuesday then parking off the coast of San Francisco Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. The first phase of this change will increase the chance of showers Tuesday night with even a slight chance Tuesday afternoon, mainly over the mountains. A cold front will drive through the valley Wednesday morning, followed by a much colder air mass. Ahead of the front, pressures will fall rapidly at the surface, generating gusty southeast winds up the west side of the valley and from Fresno County north on the east side. There will be the possibility of strong, gusty downslope winds at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
There will be periods of rain Wednesday through Thanksgiving night. As the cold pool of air moves overhead Wednesday and Thursday, snow levels could drop to as low as 3,000 feet in the surrounding mountains, possibly even lower in heavier precipitation. If there are breaks in the overcast Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, there will be a small chance of isolated thunderstorms which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.
The low will begin to slowly move eastward Friday, but showers will continue with very low snow levels in the mountains. Behind the storm, as it moves into the Rocky Mountain region, will be a northeast flow, injecting colder and possibly drier air into the valley. It’s possible this flow could remain mainly at the higher elevations, in which case fog and low clouds would have a decent chance of forming beginning Saturday morning. If the off shore flow is strong enough, the fog will be generally patchy with cold overnight lows and a string of frost nights.
Models for the first week in December show the chance of precipitation remaining fairly low with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy late night and morning fog through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno north during the afternoon. Periods of rain will spread southward Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday night. showers Friday, tapering off late in the evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning with areas of fog and low clouds. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/34/66/33/63 | Reedley 67/36/66/35/62 | Dinuba 65/33/65/32/62 |
| Porterville 68/36/66/35/63 | Lindsay 67/37/66/35/63 | Delano 68/38/66/36/62 |
| Bakersfield 68/42/65/41/62 | Taft 68/46/67/45/63 | Arvin 68/40/65/38/62 |
| Lamont 68/39/65/38/62 | Pixley 67/36/66/35/63 | Tulare 65/33/65/32/62 |
| Woodlake 67/35/66/35/62 | Hanford 67/37/66/36/63 | Orosi 67/35/66/34/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM showers possible 34/60 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 37/55 |
Thanksgiving Day
Periods of rain 40/51 |
Friday
Showers likely 34/52 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/53 |
Two Week Outlook: November 30 through December 6: It’s not often that this model indicates an 80% chance of well below average temperatures, but that’s what this model is now indicating. This same model indicates a greater potential for precipitation over the southern half of California and below average precipitation over northern California. That being said, precipitation will probably be in the low chance category.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday morning. Winds Monday afternoon will become out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be gusty out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with possible gusts to 35 MPH along the west side and from Fresno County north with southeast winds of 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts in Tulare County. This is a pattern where we’ll have to roll the dice for now for Kern County, but the configuration is somewhat favorable for strong, gusty, southeast winds blowing downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. For now, we’ll forecast possible gusts above 50 MPH in places like the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere in the extreme south with gusts over 35 MPH possible as far north as Bakersfield. Again, the greatest risk of these winds will be later Tuesday night and well into the day Wednesday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. there will be a slight chance of showers from Fresno County northward Tuesday afternoon with an increasing chance of rain as Tuesday night wears on. From Wednesday through Thursday night, expect periods of rain. The counterclockwise circulation around the low to our west will swing the winds aloft from the southwest perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada which will enjoy the benefits of several feet of new snow. This same flow pattern also creates strong rain shadows in Kern County and along the west side of the valley, greatly reducing the chance of significant rainfall amounts.
Highest rainfall amounts will be in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and northeastern Tulare County where .50 or more is possible. Along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County, no more than .10 is likely.
Models do indicate that if there are breaks in the cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, isolated thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out. If this occurs, locally heavy rain and even small hail will be possible with locally .50+ totals being possible.
Showers will continue through much of the day Friday with very low snow levels. Friday night will turn dry with dry weather next weekend and well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: From Sunday through Tuesday mornings, coldest locations will be at or just slightly above 32. Most locations north of Kern County will be in the 34 to 38 degree range. Upper 30s and lower 40s will be common in Kern County. From Wednesday through Friday, expect above freezing conditions with possibly just slightly above Friday morning. A very cold winter storm will maintain periodic rain and heavy cloud cover during this period.
A cold northeast flow will be wrapping around the back side of the exiting storm, injecting a cold air mass into the region. For now, it appears upper 20s and lower 30s will be commonplace for several nights. However, the wild cards will be fog and low clouds. Hopefully the valley floor will be soaking wet, helping to alleviate a potential freeze situation. So far so good on the potential for a hard freeze as it just doesn’t look likely. However, models for the first week in December continue to show a cold weather pattern with temperatures well below average.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range November 22, 2019: Delano, 95%/42% Porterville, 96%/37%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corner .56, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .56, Porterville .49, Delano .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 58, Blackwell 64, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 62/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 245 -116
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 58.6- +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.40 Month to Date: .00 -.77
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.37, or -.38. Month to Date: .37 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 72, Parlier 131, Arvin 63, Shafter 87, Stratford 90, Delano 104, Lindcove 83, Porterville 167,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:59
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.99 98 2.03 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.65 40 1.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.52 30 1.72 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.58 33 1.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 41 1.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.33 25 1.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.37 49 0.32 43 0.75 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.06 9 0.41 61 0.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 1.50 98 1.53 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.02 1 0.42 31 1.35 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.02 1 0.56 36 1.54 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 23/pm