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November 27, 2019/report

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November 27, 2019

Summary: Significant precipitation has already been recorded throughout the valley.  Generally speaking, between .25 and .50 has been recorded at most locations.  Individual totals are reported below.  The center of circulation of a very cold low pressure system is located over the California/Oregon border.  The cold front associated with the low moved through the valley last night and has slowed down.  It’s now draped across the Kern County mountains.  The slower forward movement of the front has allowed even Kern County to pick up decent amounts of rain.


The freezing level overnight over Oakland was down to 3,900 feet.  That is low enough for the snow level to drop to 3,000 feet or so and this will lower even more as the center of the low and its associated pool of cold, unstable air drifts southward, centering near the Bay Area tonight and Thursday morning.  There will be periods of showers through Thanksgiving night and possibly well into Friday.  Models have slowed down the whole process so the back side of the back side of this storm may not clear the valley until Friday afternoon.


As the daytime heating process gets underway, showers will become more numerous.  Thunderstorms are a distinct possibility this afternoon and evening, and again Thursday afternoon and evening.  If and where this occurs, localized heavy rain and small hail can be expected.


It appears we will have a short dry period from Friday afternoon through possibly all the way through Saturday.  as the current storm exits stage right, the next low pressure system will begin to spread precipitation over northern California Saturday night and central California Sunday through Monday.  Models are still having somewhat of a difficult time in determining how close to the coast this storm will progress.  Some show the low further off shore but most models show it moving very slowly off shore, eventually moving through southern California in a greatly weakened conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.  this means there will be a chance of showers any day from Sunday through Tuesday.  This system is not as strong as the current blockbuster, but even so, it’s not a weak one, either.


As we alluded to earlier, snow is falling down to roughly 3,000 feet.  If you’re traveling southward, Tehachapi is reporting moderate snow at this hour with a temperature of 32, so it would be very wise to get on CalTrans website and find out about road conditions if you’re heading into southern California or any of the mountain regions.


We may see a few days of dry weather during the latter part of next week.  If we do, extensive fog and /or low clouds would be the result.  Yes, it is that time of year.


Forecast: Periods of rain with a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight.  showers Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of thunderstorms again Thursday afternoon and evening.  Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  A chance of showers Friday morning.  Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  Increasing cloudiness again Saturday afternoon with a good chance of showers again Sunday with a chance of showers at any time Sunday night through Tuesday.  A slight chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 50/38/50/38/48 Reedley 51/39/49/38/48 Dinuba 49/38/49/38/48
Porterville 51/39/49/38/49 Lindsay 51/38/50/38/48 Delano 51/39/49/39/48
Bakersfield 51/42/49/41/48 Taft 48/40/48/40/48 Arvin 48/38/48/39/48
Lamont 51/40/49/40/48 Pixley 51/38/49/38/48 Tulare 50/38/48/38/47
Woodlake 51/39/48/38/48 Hanford 51/38/49/38/48 Orosi 50/37/49/37/47


Seven Day Forecast:


Partly cloudy



Showers likely



Showers likely



Chance of showers



Chance of showers



Two Week Outlook: December 3 through December 9:  This model is indicating a generally westerly flow into central California during this time frame for marginally above average temperatures in the valley.  This model also indicates there’s a reasonably good chance of rain from time to time during this period.


December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average.  This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S.  The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.


January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S.  There are two small notations for below average precipitation.  The first is over Louisiana.  The second is over northern and central California.  Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.


Winds: Just ahead of the front, winds at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine exceeded 50 MPH but have died off after the frontal passage.  Winds today through Thursday night will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times.  Stronger gusts are possible, mainly in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms.  Winds Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds Friday night and Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.


Rain:  The following are storm totals as of 6:00am.  Mettler .37, Buttonwillow .15, Taft .16, Bakersfield .37, Lamont .25, Delano .29, Porterville .31, Tulare .32, Visalia .29, Lindcove .38, Hanford .29, Lemoore .42, Five Points .11, Fresno .36,  Clovis .50, Del Rey .32, Exeter .36, Reedley .30, Madera .21.


The cold front  moved down the valley last night, dropping significant amounts of precipitation.  AS of the time of this writing, steady rain will be occurring over the valley portion of Kern County where the precipitation pattern north of Kern County has dropped off to in and out showers.  That will be the rainfall pattern through Thanksgiving night.  there will also be a chance of thunderstorms both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Models have slowed down the eastward progression of this storm and show the low moving south into northern California.  This may keep the shower machine going into Friday morning before the back side of the storm moves into the Great Basin Friday afternoon.  Generally speaking, rainfall amounts at  most locations range between  .25 and .50.  rainfall amounts from this point on will generally be between .10 to .50, especially in locations where thunderstorms occur.


We should see a dry slot Friday afternoon through Saturday now.  The chance of showers will again increase Saturday night as a new Pacific storm approaches the California coast.  This system is projected to just park off shore through Monday night then drift southward parallel to the coast, resulting in a chance of showers from Saturday night through Monday night, possibly even into Tuesday.  From Wednesday and a few days thereafter, another dry slot will occur, but models are show a generally active weather pattern for the first week in December.


Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing more than likely tonight and for the remainder of the week and, if models hold, for most of next week as well.  It is possible that Friday and Saturday mornings, if there is enough clearing, coldest locations could briefly dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s.  but no freeze conditions are expected for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 85%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 75%/95%

Actual Humidity range November 26, 2019: Delano, 84%/27% Porterville, 85%/27%


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .64, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .58, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .46, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 60, Delano 52

Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 303 -124

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 57.3- +4.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.03 season. or -1.52  Month to Date: .03 -.89

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.37, or -.47.  Month to Date: .37 -.17

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 111,  Parlier 173,  Arvin 93, Shafter 121, Stratford 124, Delano 144, Lindcove 118, Porterville 211

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:50  Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:55

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  55 /  28 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  35 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  56 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  55 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  57 /  29 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  58 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1548 /  56 /  36 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  42 / 0.00 /


Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.01    0.01     0    2.51   111     2.27    14.06

MODESTO                          T       T     0    0.81    44     1.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.58    31     1.86    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.58    30     1.91    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.60    39     1.55    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.34    24     1.42    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.37    44    0.34    40     0.84     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.06     8    0.41    55     0.75     5.18

SALINAS                       0.01    0.01     1    1.83   105     1.75    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.02     1    0.42    28     1.50    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.02     1    0.57    33     1.73    13.95


Next report: Tuesday morning/November 26