Summary: An intense low pressure system continues to be centered near the California/Oregon border. Its associated strong cold front is moving slowly through southern California. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are rotating in from the west/southwest underneath the main low. Scattered thunderstorms have percolated up over the valley floor this afternoon with several reports of pea size hail. There have also been sightings of a funnel cloud about 5 miles northeast of Goshen. More thunderstorms will continue to erupt during the late afternoon and early evening hours in the cold and very unstable environment.
The freezing level above the valley floor is around 4,000 feet. It will lower a bit Thanksgiving Day as the center of circulation drifts from its current position to near the Bay Area. This means snow levels will drop a bit, as well. Periodic showers will continue right into Friday morning with a good possibility of thunderstorms Thanksgiving afternoon and evening.
By roughly midday Friday, models show this mighty storm pulling off into northern Nevada then points eastward from there. A brief break in the action will occur later Friday afternoon into early Saturday, but just as quickly as this storm is put in the history books, a new, milder low will develop off the Oregon/northern California coast. Showers will spread over northern and central California during the second half of the day Saturday. models vary a great deal on the timing of the onset of showers. Suffice it to say, the second half of the weekend will be wet.
This system should follow a course slowly down the California coast but it will take its sweet time, finally moving inland through southern California Wednesday. the counterclockwise circulation around the low will rotate bands of showers into central California from time to time Sunday through Wednesday. on paper, anyway, this system is not as dynamic as the current one. Even so, water is water and so we’ll take it.
Another brief break shows up on models for later Thursday and Friday, however there are more hints of a more significant trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska next weekend for the possibility of more weather action.
Forecast: For the remainder of the afternoon, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will actually taper off a bit tonight, but will increase again Thanksgiving Day through Thanksgiving night with another round of scattered thunderstorms Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. Periods of showers will last into Friday morning then mostly to partly cloudy Friday evening through early Saturday. clouds will be on the increase again by midday Saturday with showers spreading over the area Saturday afternoon. There will be a chance of showers at any time from Saturday night all the way through Wednesday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/50/36/49 | Reedley 39/51/37/49 | Dinuba 38/49/36/48 | |
| Porterville 39/51/38/50 | Lindsay 38/50/37/49 | Delano 39/51/38/50 | |
| Bakersfield 39/49/39/48 | Taft 37/48/36/48 | Arvin 39/50/38/48 | |
| Lamont 39/50/38/48 | Pixley 39/50/38/49 | Tulare 39/49/37/48 | |
| Woodlake 38/50/37/49 | Hanford 38/49/37/48 | Orosi 38/49/36/48 | |
Winds: Winds will generally be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH through Thursday night with local gusts to 25 possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Winds Friday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Friday night will be generally at or less than 12 MPH, becoming out of the southeast again Saturday at 10 to 15 MPH.
Rain: So far, Kern County has again been the grand champion in rainfall totals as Arvin as of 1:00pm has picked up .46 and Bakersfield .54. Most other locations north of Kern County have recorded between .33 and .50.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours, tapering off somewhat during the overnight hours only to increase again Thanksgiving Day through night. another round of scattered thunderstorms is likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts from now through Friday morning will range from a tenth or two to upwards of a half inch where thunderstorms track. Finally, a narrow period of dry weather will occur Friday afternoon into early Saturday then the chance of showers will again increase the later in the day we progress on Saturday. periods of showers can be expected anytime Saturday night through Wednesday of next week. Another possible brief period of dry weather next Thursday and Friday, but some models are showing the development of another trough of low pressure along the coast next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing Thanksgiving morning. There will be a minimal chance of local frost Friday and Saturday mornings, but only if skies clear for several hours. Just as soon as this storm exits, the next one will begin to spread cloud cover over the region. The storm that will affect central California this coming weekend will be a milder one with much higher snow levels. This will guarantee above freezing conditions for not just the second half of the weekend, but the upcoming week as well.
Next report: Thanksgiving morning/November 28