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Forecast

Thanksgiving Day 2019

Summary: The center of circulation of a very cold low pressure system is right near the Bay Area.  The most active portion of this storm is the southern flank.  The counterclockwise rotation is moving  heavy amounts of precipitation into southern California with heavy snow over the Kern County mountains.  Showers are spreading into the southern half of the valley but are light in nature due to rain shadows from the Kern County mountains.  As the daytime heating process revs up, showers will become more numerous with another chance of thunderstorms this afternoon with locally  heavy rain and small hail.  This time, however, the showers and storms will be rotating from south to north.

 

Very unsettled weather will continue right into Friday morning.  Finally, by Friday afternoon the center of this storm will be over northern Nevada.  Dry weather will greet us Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  Most of the models place the next storm off the northern California coast by midday Saturday, spreading precipitation over all of central California possibly by Saturday afternoon.  This low pressure system will keep conditions unsettled all the way through midday as it will  move very slowly southward, finally weakening and moving through southern California Wednesday afternoon and night.  this system is much milder, so snow levels will rise to about 7,000 feet by Sunday night.

 

Models show an impressive trough of low pressure digging down the Pacific Ocean and affecting most of California this coming weekend.  So, after a very dry autumn season, the wet season has arrived with a vengeance.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers through Friday morning.  Look for a chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.  Like yesterday, they will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  The chance of rain will begin to increase Saturday afternoon, becoming likely at times Saturday night through Monday night.  a chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday evening.  Partly cloudy later Wednesday night through Thursday with areas of fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 48/36/48/33/51 Reedley 49/37/49/34/50 Dinuba 48/36/48/33/50
Porterville 49/37/49/35/51 Lindsay 49/37/48/33/51 Delano 49/37/49/35/52
Bakersfield 48/37/48/38/52 Taft 45/35/45/34/52 Arvin 48/38/48/35/52
Lamont 49/38/49/36/50 Pixley 48/37/48/34/51 Tulare 47/36/47/32/50
Woodlake 48/37/48/34/51 Hanford 49/37/49/34/50 Orosi 48/36/48/33/51

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Periods of rain

44/59

Monday

Periods of rain

48/60

Tuesday

Chance of showers

50/62

Wednesday

AM showers

47/61

Thursday

AM fog/partly cloud

45/62

 

Two Week Outlook: December 5 through December 11:  This model is indicating a generally westerly flow into central California during this time frame for marginally above average temperatures in the valley.  This model also indicates there’s a reasonably good chance of rain from time to time during this period.

 

December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average.  This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S.  The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.

 

January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S.  There are two small notations for below average precipitation.  The first is over Louisiana.  The second is over northern and central California.  Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.

 

Winds:Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH through tonight with stronger gusts near showers and especially thunderstorms.  Winds Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Friday night will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.  Later Saturday night through Sunday, winds will be out of the southeast at  8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  The following are storm totals ending at 6:00am.  Arvin .50, Lamont .25, Mettler .37, Taft .19, Bakersfield .55, Delano .54, Porterville .78, Kettleman Hills .32, Stratford .28, Shafter .48, Lindsay .43, Visalia .71, Hanford .42, Lemoore .48, Five Points .17, Jasmine .78, Parlier .36. Fresno .44, Madera .22, Firebaugh .33.

 

Showers are rotating around the low from almost south to north.  Rain shadows off the Kern County mountains is producing just light showers, however as the daytime heating process revs up, showers will become more numerous with additional chances of thunderstorms.  The risk of showers will go right into the first half of the day Friday then will taper off by Friday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts for the remainder of this event will range from .10 to possibly as much as .50 where thunderstorms occur.

 

A short period of dry weather will run from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  The chance of rain will begin to increase again Saturday afternoon then will be likely at times Saturday night through Monday night.  as the low drifts southward off the central coast, there will be a chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday evening with dry weather finally arriving Wednesday night through Friday night.

 

Models continue to trend towards perhaps another major weather event next weekend.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees, however if there is even just a few hours of clear skies, coldest locations could drop down to 30 to 32.  There’s a slightly higher risk of below freezing temperatures Saturday morning, although my feeling is residual clouds from the current storm and possibly the arrival of clouds from the next system will maintain above freezing conditions.  Still, there is that outside chance of a window of opportunity for mostly clear skies which would lower temperatures into the upper 20s to the lower 30s for short durations.  After Saturday morning, heavy cloud cover and precipitation as well as the arrival of a much milder air mass will result in above freezing conditions.  I feel safe in saying above freezing conditions will continue for all of next week.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 85%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 75%/95%

Actual Humidity range November 26, 2019: Delano, 84%/27% Porterville, 85%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .64, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .58, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .46, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 60, Delano 52

Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 303 -124

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 57.3- +4.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 0.03 season. or -1.52  Month to Date: .03 -.89

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  0.37, or -.47.  Month to Date: .37 -.17

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 111,  Parlier 173,  Arvin 93, Shafter 121, Stratford 124, Delano 144, Lindcove 118, Porterville 211

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:50  Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:55

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  55 /  28 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  35 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  56 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  35 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  55 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  57 /  29 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  58 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1548 /  56 /  36 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  42 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.01    0.01     0    2.51   111     2.27    14.06

MODESTO                          T       T     0    0.81    44     1.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.58    31     1.86    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.58    30     1.91    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.60    39     1.55    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.34    24     1.42    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.37    44    0.34    40     0.84     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.06     8    0.41    55     0.75     5.18

SALINAS                       0.01    0.01     1    1.83   105     1.75    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.02     1    0.42    28     1.50    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.02     1    0.57    33     1.73    13.95

 

Next report: Thanksgiving afternoon /November 28