November 30, 2019
Summary: Clouds are already increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm which will be a blockbuster for the northern half of the state. Satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific shows a large area of low pressure roughly 500 miles off the northern California coast. Flanked underneath this low is a swath of subtropical moisture stretching from north of Hawaii to northern California. Already this morning, Doppler radar has shown light precipitation beginning to move onshore in Monterey County. Most of this is aloft, however as the deeper subtropical moisture begins to arrive, precipitation will begin to spread into northern and central California with copious amounts of precip over the foothills and mountains from roughly the Tulare/Fresno County line northward.
The key to this system is to determine the wet/dry line. For now, it appears precipitation from later this afternoon through Monday will be likely north of Kern County. South of the Kern/Tulare County line, only light showers are anticipated as that long fetch of subtropical moisture moves inland with possibly one inch plus totals on the valley floor from Fresno County north and two to four inches of precipitation from Fresno County northward in the Sierra with considerably less over Tulare County.
The low will be pretty much in a stationary position tonight through Monday then will weaken and move slowly south/southeast along the central California coast Monday night and Tuesday, continuing the chance of showers. Showers will become more widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday evening as the low tracks across southern California.
Dry conditions will be likely Thursday into much of Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. The active pattern will continue Friday night through Saturday night as the next trough of low pressure sweeps inland from the eastern Pacific, producing precipitation for most if not all of California.
Medium range models for a week from Sunday and beyond are indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure building in from the eastern Pacific for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Rain becoming likely north of Kern County later today and at times through Monday. Rain may be locally heavy at times from Fresno County north. In Kern County, expect a chance of light showers later this afternoon through Monday. A chance of showers Monday night through Tuesday. Showers will be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Becoming partly cloudy later Wednesday night through Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon with rain becoming likely Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/44/58/47/58 | Reedley 53/43/58/46/57 | Dinuba 52/42/56/44/56 | |
| Porterville 54/44/59/46/59 | Lindsay 53/42/58/47/59 | Delano 54/46/60/44/61 | |
| Bakersfield 53/47/61/48/63 | Taft 52/45/60/47/62 | Arvin 53/44/60/47/62 | |
| Lamont 54/44/60/46/62 | Pixley 54/44/58/46/58 | Tulare 52/42/56/45/57 | |
| Woodlake 53/43/58/46/56 | Hanford 53/45/58/46/59 | Orosi 53/42/58/45/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 47/64 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 48/61 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 43/61 |
Friday
PM rain 43/63 |
Saturday
Rain likely 45/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12:This model shows a generally above average risk of rain, especially for northern and central California. Temperatures during this time frame should be close to marginally above average.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be out of the east to southeast today at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts this afternoon. Winds tonight through Sunday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts at times. Localized winds out of the east to southeast are possible blowing downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains later tonight and Sunday, possibly exceeding 40 MPH. winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be variable to 15 MPH.
Rain: Doppler radar is already showing light precipitation moving on shore in Monterey County and in parts of northern California. The chance of rain north of Kern County will increase late this morning but more than likely later this afternoon. It appears there will be a distinct drop off point for the wet/dry line which appears to be generally across the Kern County mountains, meaning the valley portion of Kern County will receive just light showers through Sunday, generally less than .10. the dynamics of this storm will become stronger further to the north. Couple that with a juicy southwesterly flow moving into north/central California and heavy precipitation will be the result from Fresno County north where more than 1.0 may be recorded from this afternoon through Monday. Amounts will rapidly decrease as you move down into Tulare County with just .25 or so down into the Lindsay/Porterville area. Much of Kings County will also be in that .25 range.
Precipitation will begin to decrease by Monday evening, however the chance for showers will continue Monday night through Tuesday as the center of circulation of this storm moves southward off the central coast. Showers will pick up again later Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as the storm moves through southern California.
Dry weather will return later Wednesday night through at least Friday morning. The chance of rain will increase again Friday afternoon, becoming likely Friday night into Saturday night. this system may produce another significant amount of precipitation for central California.
Next Sunday and into the following week look dry at the moment with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Frost Discussion: Navalencia, Fowler, and Exeter recorded lows of 29 this morning. All other locations were in the low to mid 30s. no frost is anticipated this upcoming week. In fact, as of now there is no pattern suggesting a particularly cold weather system on the horizon.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity range November 29, 2019: Delano, 99%/46% Porterville, 96%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corner .49, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .39, Delano .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Blackwell 59, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 57, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 77/29. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 360 -119
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.1- +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.50 season. or -1.16 Month to Date: .50 -.53
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.03, or +.11. Month to Date: 1.03 +.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 162, Parlier 214, Arvin 121, Shafter 150, Stratford 162, Delano 181, Lindcove 161, Porterville 255
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 53 / 38 / M /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 42 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 53 / 40 / 0.15 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 37 / 0.05 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 51 / 41 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 43 / 0.36 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 50 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.16 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1543 / 48 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.04 0.67 27 3.53 144 2.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.06 3 2.42 122 1.99 13.11
MERCED M T 0 2.36 121 1.95 12.50
MADERA T 0.28 14 2.11 106 1.99 12.02
FRESNO T 0.50 30 1.75 105 1.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.10 0.58 39 1.43 97 1.48 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 1.03 112 0.67 73 0.92 6.47
BISHOP T 0.91 114 1.31 164 0.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 0.85 44 3.56 185 1.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 1.01 63 2.37 147 1.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.08 1.47 78 1.69 90 1.88 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon /November 30